First, the truly alarming news next to no one seems to care about: Day by day, the war in Ukraine is tipping ever closer to triggering a nuclear strike.

Earlier this week, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. once again waved the warning flag on this pending cataclysm, posting: “The situation in Ukraine is on the brink of calamitous escalation. Do the military imperialists in Washington and their lackeys in Europe have any idea the danger they are courting? They are conducting foreign policy as if it were a game of ‘chicken.’”

Kennedy is nightmarishly correct. It is a point I have stressed several times on this site. Be it the actions of the Biden administration, the United Kingdom, France or others, some in the West seem intent in daring Vladimir Putin and the Russians to do the unthinkable. Why?

Leaving aside the ever-malleable arguments that: “We have to stand as one against Putin,” “We have to save the people of Ukraine” or “We have to protect NATO,” there are also other forces at work here. First among them: money.

Before we get there, for those trying to “save the people and infrastructure of Ukraine,” I am truly sad to report that you have failed. While most in the media seem averse to reporting certain facts in the country, this much is true: Hundreds of thousands of men, women and children have been killed or wounded; much of the infrastructure of the country has been reduced to rubble; and over 6 million Ukrainians have fled their nation. Those encouraging Ukraine to fight to its last citizen from the comfort and safety of their offices thousands of miles from the battlefield need to come up with a more convincing rationale.

Now, back to the money. Toward the end of April, President Biden signed yet another aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, this one to the tune of $95 billion. But, as they used to say in the late-night commercials, “Wait, there’s more.” As reported last month: “Ukraine and US working on long-term security agreement.”

How long is “long term”? According to venture capitalist and podcast host David Sacks — as well as others — “long term” would equal approximately 10 years and cost upwards of $1 trillion.

Clearly, for a number of defense contractors in our nation and in Europe, Ukraine has become the gift that keeps on giving. But when does a never-ending supply of taxpayer money begin to resemble “fraud, waste and abuse”? Some would certainly say now, as hundreds of millions of dollars have already disappeared down various rat holes in Ukraine with no accountability.

Next, at what point do the billions and billions of aid pouring into Ukraine begin to resemble the world’s largest Ponzi scheme? One definition of that age-old scam is a form of fraud that pays profits to earlier investors with funds from more recent investors. Except in this case, the “earlier” and “more recent” investors are not doing so of their own volition. Their various governments are deciding for them, as they take their hard-earned money and turn it over by the billions to Ukraine or, quite possibly, criminal enterprises.

The grift in this case can sound very much like this: “We have to prop up Ukraine now by sending hundreds of billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars, so we won’t have to send in U.S. troops later.” Gee, and just who would be ordering those troops into combat in Ukraine?

Going back to Kennedy’s warning, we now seem to be — without anyone asking for our approval — engaging in a game of nuclear “chicken” with Putin and Russia over Ukraine. Insane hubris at the least.

As RFK Jr. posted: “British Foreign Secretary David Cameron recently stated that Ukraine has the right to use British weapons to strike Russia. In return, Moscow warned the British ambassador that that would provoke Russian retaliation against London.” The New York Times reported last week that the U.S. secretly shipped ATACM missiles to Ukraine that can strike deep into Russian territory; not by coincidence, Russia announced training maneuvers using tactical nuclear weapons.

Does any of that make your blood run cold? It should.

None of the experts I have spoken with over the course of the last two years believe Ukraine can win this war. It’s long past the time to blow the whistle on the Ponzi scheme, end the game of nuclear “chicken” and enter into a negotiated settlement.

At some point, Putin is sure to tire of the game and drive straight into the oncoming vehicle. What then will be the literal fallout from that explosion?

** Douglas MacKinnon, a political and communications consultant, was a writer in the White House for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and former special assistant for policy and communications at the Pentagon during the last three years of the Bush administration.

 

The Hill

 

Israel moves deeper into Rafah, fights Hamas militants regrouping in northern Gaza

The exodus of Palestinians from Gaza’s last refuge accelerated Sunday as Israeli forces pushed deeper into the southern city of Rafah. Israel also pounded the territory’s devastated north, where some Hamas militants have regrouped in areas the military said it had cleared months ago.

Rafah is considered Hamas’ last stronghold. Some 300,000 of the more than 1 million civilians sheltering there have fled the city following evacuation orders from Israel, which says it must invade to dismantle Hamas and return scores of hostages taken from Israel in the Oct. 7 attack that sparked the war.

Neighboring Egypt issued its strongest objection yet to the Rafah offensive, saying it intends to formally join South Africa’s case at the International Court of Justice alleging Israel is committing genocide in Gaza — an accusation Israel rejects. The foreign ministry statement cited “the worsening severity and scope of the Israeli attacks against Palestinian civilians.”

United Nations human rights chief Volker Turk said in a statement that he cannot see how a full-scale invasion of Rafah can be reconciled with international humanitarian law.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated opposition to a major military assault on Rafah, and told CBS that Israel would “be left holding the bag on an enduring insurgency” without an exit from Gaza and postwar governance plan.

Gaza has been left without a functioning government, leading to a breakdown in public order and allowing Hamas’ armed wing to reconstitute itself even in the hardest-hit areas. On Sunday, Hamas touted attacks against Israeli soldiers in Rafah and near Gaza City.

Israel has yet to offer a detailed plan for postwar governance in Gaza, saying only that it will maintain open-ended security control over the enclave of about 2.3 million Palestinians.

Internationally mediated talks over a cease-fire and hostage release appeared to be at a standstill.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a Memorial Day speech vowed to continue fighting until victory in memory of those killed in the war. But in Tel Aviv, hundreds of protesters stood outside military headquarters and raised candles during a minute-long siren marking the day’s start, demanding an immediate cease-fire deal to return the hostages.

Netanyahu has rejected postwar plans proposed by the United States for the Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, to govern Gaza with support from Arab and Muslim countries. Those plans depend on progress toward the creation of a Palestinian state, which Israel’s government opposes.

The Oct. 7 attack killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took another 250 hostage. Militants still hold about 100 captives and the remains of more than 30.

Israel’s offensive has killed more than 35,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which doesn’t distinguish between civilians and combatants in its figures. Israel says it has killed over 13,000 militants, without providing evidence.

HEAVY BOMBARDMENT IN THE NORTH

Palestinians reported heavy Israeli bombardment overnight in the urban Jabaliya refugee camp and other areas in northern Gaza, which has been largely isolated by Israeli forces for months. U.N. officials say there is a “full-blown famine” there.

Residents said Israeli warplanes and artillery also struck the Zeitoun area east of Gaza City, where troops have battled militants for over a week. They have called on tens of thousands of people to relocate to nearby areas.

“It was a very difficult night,” said Abdel-Kareem Radwan, a 48-year-old from Jabaliya. He said they could hear intense and constant bombing since midday Saturday. “This is madness.”

First responders with the Palestinian Civil Defense said they were unable to respond to multiple calls for help from both areas, as well as from Rafah.

In central Gaza, staff at the Al Aqsa hospital in Deir al-Balah said an Israeli strike killed four people.

Daniel Hagari, the top Israeli military spokesman, said forces were also operating in the northern towns of Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun, which were heavily bombed in the war’s opening days.

Hamas’ military wing said it shelled Israeli special forces east of Jabaliya and fired mortar shells at troops and vehicles entering the Rafah border crossing area.

“Hamas’ regime cannot be toppled without preparing an alternative to that regime,” columnist Ben Caspit wrote in Israel’s Maariv daily, channeling the growing frustration felt by many Israelis more than seven months into the war. “The only people who can govern Gaza after the war are Gazans, with a lot of support and help from the outside.”

CIVILIANS FLEE IN THE SOUTH

Rafah had been sheltering 1.3 million Palestinians, most of whom had fled fighting elsewhere. But Israel has now evacuated the eastern third of the city.

Most people are heading to the heavily damaged nearby city of Khan Younis or Muwasi, a coastal tent camp where some 450,000 people are already living in squalid conditions.

The U.N. has warned that a planned full-scale invasion would further cripple humanitarian operations and cause a surge in civilian deaths. The main aid entry points near Rafah are already affected. Israeli troops have captured the Gaza side of the Rafah crossing, forcing it to shut down.

A senior Egyptian official told The Associated Press that Cairo has lodged protests with Israel, the United States and European governments, saying the offensive has put its decades-old peace treaty with Israel — a cornerstone of regional stability — at high risk. The official was not authorized to brief media and spoke on condition of anonymity.

U.S. President Joe Biden has said he won’t provide offensive weapons to Israel for Rafah, and his administration says there is “reasonable” evidence that Israel had breached international lawprotecting civilians.

Israel rejects those allegations, saying it tries to avoid harming civilians. It blames Hamas for the high toll because the militants fight in dense, residential areas.

In the West Bank, where deadly violence has increased since the war began, the Palestinian Health Ministry said a man was shot dead by Israeli forces in Balata refugee camp in Nablus. The army said its forces responded with live fire after being shot at by militants in the camp.

 

AP

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russian forces bear down on Ukraine border town in Kharkiv region

Russian forces attacking Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region were engaged in fighting on the outskirts of the border town of Vovchansk, Kyiv's troops said on Sunday, as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy described heavy fighting there and in the east.

Moscow troops entered into the Kharkiv regionon Friday, opening a northeastern front in the 27-month war that has long been waged in the south and east. Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, is 30 km (18 miles) from the Russian border.

Soldiers returning from a combat mission in the area said the fighting had reached the edges of Vovchansk, a town around 4 km from the border and 45 km from Kharkiv city, describing helping some troops break out of Russian encirclement.

"The town is ours. They (the Russians) are biting on the outskirts, but we are biting back. And we will bite for every metre," said a Ukrainian soldier.

"Our boys got surrounded. We helped them. They got out and set up a defensive line along the street, inflicting considerable losses to enemy infantry."

In a post-midnight report, Ukraine's General Staff said Russian forces had achieved "tactical success" with 14 of 22 attempted advances in the area still proceeding.

Fighting was raging around Vovchansk, it said, with Russian forces "deploying significant forces for its attack on the town". But it said Russian troops were "taking no account of their own losses", with at least 100 reported dead.

The Russian military says it has seized control of at least nine border villages in the Kharkiv region. Kyiv says it is repelling the attacks and battling to control the settlements.

Several Russian media outlets, including Mash and Readovka, reported that Moscow's troops had entered Vovchansk.

The main thrusts of Russia's attack were aimed at Vovchansk and the town of Lyptsi around 7.5 km from the border and some 20 km (12 miles) from the city of Kharkiv, Ukrainian military spokesperson Nazar Voloshyn said.

Tamaz Gambarashvili, head of Vovchansk's military administration, told Reuters the town remained under Ukrainian control after its soldiers turned back small groups of Russians.

Russian drones, he said, were "constantly above Vovchansk".

Kharkiv regional Governor Oleh Synehubov said Russian forces were "intensifying their shelling of Vovchansk". Nearly 6,000 residents had been evacuated from the area, he said.

VOLUNTEERS READY RESIDENTS FOR EVACUATION

Volunteers in flak jackets and helmets raced through village neighbourhoods, pleading with residents in damaged homes to pack up a handful of possessions and leave for evacuation points.

Evacuee Kostiantyn Tymchenko said fighting was raging 500 metres from his house, with Russian troops on the opposite bank of the Vovcha River.

"Ukrainian tanks roll in, shoot and roll out. On the other side there is shouting all the time," he told Reuters.

Despite the constant explosions nearby, some elderly residents were reluctant to go. Others were sluggish in preparing, despite urging from volunteers.

One man was brought in to an evacuation point with torn-off fingers, an incident medics said occurred after Russian forces shot him as he was leaving his house. As medics attended to his wounds, the man said "What did I do to deserve this?'"

Zelenskiy, in his nightly video address, said "defensive battles" had engulfed a string of Kharkiv region villages.

Fighting, he said, was "no less acute" in the Donetsk region.

Ukraine is on the defensive after months of slowed supplies of U.S. munitions. Russia's forces hold a significant advantage in manpower and munitions.

In 2022, soon after the start of their full-scale invasion, Russian forces reached the suburbs of the city of Kharkiv before being driven back to the border.

Kyiv says months of delays by the U.S. Congress before voting through the aid package last month have cost them on the battlefield. It now hopes significant quantities of the approved assistance will arrive quickly to bolster the defence effort.

On the other side of the border in the Belgorod region a whole section of a Russian apartment block collapsed, killing at least 13 people, after it was struck by a missile launched by Ukraine and shot down by Russia, Russian officials said.

Kyiv did not immediately comment.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Scores killed and injured after Ukraine strikes Russian city – authorities

At least 18 civilians died in a series of Ukrainian strikes targeting the Russian city of Belgorod on Sunday, local governor Vyacheslav Gladkov has said. The bodies of 15 victims were taken out from under the rubble of a multi-story building that had collapsed earlier in the day as a result of one of the strikes.

Kiev’s forces launched another “massive shelling” targeting the city after the incident, the governor said on Sunday evening. This attack claimed the lives of three more people, including a 17-year-old girl, Gladkov confirmed. Five more suffered various injuries in the strike, according to authorities.

Gladkov added that, in addition to the the total death toll, over two dozen people were injured in the strikes. The second strike also damaged 17 apartments in five residential buildings, the governor said. That figure did not include the damage suffered by the partially collapsed apartment block.

Earlier, the governor said that “an entire section of an apartment building – from the tenth to the first floor – collapsed as a result of a direct hit” during a Ukrainian bombardment.

At some point, the roof of the damaged building collapsed as well, while the rescuers were clearing the rubble underneath. A source in the governor’s office told Mash Telegram channel that no one was hurt in that incident. Another Telegram channel, Shot, claimed that at least three people sustained injuries in the roof collapse. 

The Russian Defense Ministry reported that Ukraine had attacked residential areas of Belgorod, using a Tochka-U tactical missile system, as well as rockets from Olkha and RM-70 Vampire multiple launch systems. The ministry further asserted that Russian air defenses had intercepted six Soviet-era Tochka-U missiles, four Vampire rockets, and two Olkha projectiles.

The Investigative Committee of Russia has opened a criminal case into terrorism following the strike that caused the partial building collapse.

 

Reuters/RT

“I am surprised that lawyers can be so blind as to suffer the principles of law to be discredited.”  – Ralph Waldo Emerson, The Fugitive Slave Law, 186 (1851)

There is a joke that when he or she wants an excuse to impress a client in order to finagle substantial earnings, a Nigerian lawyer resorts to Latin phrases. The objective is to make the lawyer sound profound beyond even their own understanding and it is immaterial that the speaker, like the person whom he or she seeks to impress, understands absolutely nothing of what they say.

This is not surprising. Very few people practicing law in Nigeria can possibly lay claims to any grounding in the grammar of Latin or a sense of the origins of most of the Latin expressions with which they seek to hold putative clients in thrall. But the want of meaning or grounding has never stood between that tribe and Latin vibe. Indeed, many will argue that Nigerian law these days – irrespective of the language in which it is rendered – has become mostly devoid of meaning.

It was the Normans, conquerors of England in 1066, who invented precedent as their central legal method. As Michael Glennon helpfully explains, “judges looked to earlier cases that presented similar facts, inferred holdings from these cases, pieced together those holdings in a single principle, and applied the principle to the current facts” thereby rendering it “common”. So it was that the “Common Law” evolved.

As they travelled around the world on an imperial mission of adverse territorial expansion centuries later, the British exported the methods of the Common Law around their acquisitions. They left it behind as a colonial legacy when they beat their final retreat in the decades after the Second World War. In post-colonial Nigeria, one of the territories weaned on this system, precedent was a recognised method of judicial decision making.

For this reason law reports exist and law students, their teachers, practicing lawyers and judges invest in them to divine the minds of judges and piece together principles of law on the basis of which to advise clients and litigants. The assumption is that with awareness of these cases and the principles that they reveal, lawyers can advise those who seek benefit of their skills, knowledge and judgement with reasonable confidence in their prognostications of what the inclinations of the law could be if it came to be tested.

On the evidence of many recent renderings by courts in different parts of the country, however, this assumption that underpinned the practice of law and decision making by the courts in Nigeria can no longer be taken for granted.

On 17 April, 2024, for instance, Usman Na’Abba, a judge of the High Court of Kano State in north-west Nigeria, issued an interim order without the benefit of hearing the side against whom the order was issued (ex parte) requiring Abdullahi Ganduje, national chairman of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), to “stop parading himself as a party member pending the determination of the suit.” The court also restrained Ganduje in the interim from presiding over the affairs of the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party.

The effect of this order was, of course, that the man could not be expected to be chair of a party to which he did not belong as a matter of judicial reckoning. As egregious as it seemed, this kind of political sex work was not unprecedented it the annals of Nigerian judicial misconduct. Current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, successfully deployed it in August 2021 to oust then Chairman of the opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), Uche Secondus.

This time, a worried Abdullahi Ganduje mustered proverbial loyal forces in an audacious counter-attack. A mere five days after he issued the order without hearing one side, the same Usman Na’Abba, this time without listening to the side in favour of whom he had given the first order, issued“an order of interim injunction….staying the execution of the order of interim injunction contained in the ruling of this court delivered on the 17th of April, 2024.”

To translate this into language that is presumably intelligible, the judge, having first issued an ex parte order against Ganduje suspending him from claiming to be a member of the political party of which he was national chairman, thereafter, issued another ex parte order against his first order using the second interim order to suspend the effect of the first one. In soccer humour, this would be a judge’s idea of a 1-1 scoreless draw!

But these kinds of excursions into the realm of judicial dystopian have become somewhat regular fare around the country. On 5 April, 2024, Inyang Ekwo, a judge of the Federal High Court in Abuja, purportedly sat on three cases against some leading members of the PDP from Rivers State, including Celestine Omehia, whose election as governor of the State in 2007 was later overturned by the courts; Augustine Opara, former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives; and Uche Secondus who experience with Nigerian judicial Jiu Jitsu is already the stuff of legend. The claimants, who said they were members of the PDP in Rivers State, sought interim orders to restrain these three among others from requisitioning, attending, participating in or being allowed to do any of these in connection with meetings of the governing organs of the PDP.

Again without pretending to hear them, Inyang Ekwo issued dispositive orders (not even interim) granting all that the claimants asked for. Thereafter, the files in the cases reportedly disappeared. Despite lodging appeals, Messrs Omehia, Opara and Secondus cannot find the files in order to process the records of proceedings for transmission to the Court of Appeal. On 2 May, they lodged complaints with the Chief Justice of Nigeria, Olukayode Ariwoola, in his capacity as chair of the National Judicial Council (NJC), asking him to discipline Inyang Ekwo. The Chief Justice himself has, however, been voluble about his personal devotion to Nyesom Wike, the FCT Minister who is the undisguised hand behind the machinations which seek to weaponize the judiciary in this loathsome manner. How he can pretend to handle these petitions with disinterest is anyone’s guess.

The day after the petitions against the invisible records in the cases before Inyang Ekwo, another of his peers on the same Federal High Court, Peter Lifu, issued yet another set of improbable orders ex parte restraining the PDP or any of its organs from meeting to consider a replacement of its national chairman, Illiya Damagun, or from recognizing anyone other than him as its national Chairman.

The Code of Conduct applicable to judicial officers in Nigeria specifically requires that a “judicial Officer must avoid the abuse of the power of issuing interim injunctions, ex parte.” Judges who issue these kinds of orders; chief judges who keep assigning these kinds of cases to a narrow and predictable cast of judicial recidivists and keep protecting their careers; as well as the lawyers who institute them cannot pretend not to know that they are involved in a conspiracy to procure judicial transactions. As legal scholar, Tunde Ogowewo, once wrote in another context, “evidence of their guilt is furnished by the very decisions they gave.”

The only people rendered naked by these happenings are the lawyers whose claim to the discipline of the Common Law method of precedent is now in tatters. When Nigerian lawyers try these days to resort to Latin to describe the body of Nigerian law as corpus juris, the only word that can be used to complete that usage is “Abracadabra”.

** Chidi Anselm Odinkalu, a professor of law, teaches at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and can be reached through This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Are you pushing a rock uphill? When you're working on bringing a product or service to market, sometimes it can feel very burdensome – like you're pushing a heavy load skyward. A lot of effort is required and you're becoming exhausted in the process.

But this is to be expected, right? You're always hearing that every new idea takes time, effort, patience, determination and plain hard work to become successful.

It's true that what we perceive as an overnight success is usually at least 10 years in the making. There's more to it than that, though. Some ideas really are just easier to launch.

These ideas are like rocks rolling down a hill. They gather momentum easily and require less effort. These are the ideas you need to be able to identify quickly and test.

Why? Because the challenges that every inventor must conquer to bring any new idea to life are numerous. The more you can do to limit these challenges, the greater your likelihood of success.

Below, I've listed five questions to help you identify ideas that are going to take off. (Hint: There are fewer barriers to overcome.)

1. Is it a simple solution to a widespread problem?

A problem many people experience for which there is no elegant solution – yet – is what I call a "sleeping dinosaur." We're all aware of the need for improvement.

2. Is it easily understood?

Instructions aren't needed, because the purpose of the item and how to use it are obvious. (Education is costly and uncertain, making it a big barrier to overcome.)

3. Is it easily demonstrated?

You don't need a prototype. A simple sketch, 3-D computer-generated visual, or even a drawing will do. Our vision helps us process new information quickly. Being able to visually convey the benefit of the idea is a powerful selling tool.

4. Is it easily manufactured?

There's no need for new machinery. Your idea is not reinventing the wheel. No research and development means very little capital expenditure. Ideas that don't require reconfiguring a supply chain are much easier to scale and ship.

5. Does it cost the same or less than competitors?

After you receive interest, one of the first questions you will hear is, "What does it cost?" Cost is a huge hurdle to overcome for product developers. Ideas that gather momentum easily are the same or cheaper than similar products.

What comes next? Putting the right team together, which begins to take away perceived risk. Then, when you start showing the idea, it moves forward. It rolls.

Now, your job is to guide it to market by filing the right intellectual propertypatents, finding the right commercialization partners and ensuring everyone involved profits along the way.

This isn't easy; it's practically an art form. If you are doing this for the first time, find a mentor. Specifically, someone who has repeatedly achieved what you are trying to do. Identifying ideas with the potential to roll is much easier in hindsight.

Learning the difference between ideas that require a heavy lift versus those that roll is a skill every entrepreneur needs to develop. I highly recommend focusing on simple ideas first, because there is a great deal of inertia to overcome when implementing anything new.

Later, after you've developed a better understanding of what's required to turn an idea into a product, you'll be able to spot obstacles and overcome them more easily.

Looking back, one of the most difficult ideas I commercialized was a rotating label. New machinery had to be built in every manufacturing facility, which wasn't scalable.

Consumers didn't know how to use the product instinctively, so we had to place a demo at every point of purchase in Walmart showing how it spun. (We even filmed a commercial with Alex Trebek, the late host of the game show Jeopardy, with the same goal in mind.)

And because the rotating label was actually two labels, it doubled costs. While it offered a clear benefit, the product ultimately failed for these reasons.

One of the easiest ideas I licensed was the Michael Jordan Wall-Ball to the toy company Ohio Art. They were already selling an indoor Nerf basketball hoop that featured a small image of the iconic basketball player.

Why not transform the entire backboard into the shape of Michael Jordan? Three days after I pitched this simple idea, I received a licensing agreement in the mail – and earned royalties for the next 10 years.

The idea made good business sense. Cost was reduced by going from plastic to paper. By changing the packaging from a box to a clamshell, the product stood out better. Enlarging the image of Michael Jordan made it more attractive to fans.

 

Inc

President Bola Tinubu has asked the Central Bank of Nigeria to suspend the implementation of the controversial cybersecurity levy policy and ordered a review.

This followed the decision of the House of Representatives, which, last Thursday, asked the CBN to withdraw its circular directing all banks to commence charging a 0.5 per cent cybersecurity levy on all electronic transactions in the country.

The CBN on May 6, 2024, issued a circular mandating all banks, mobile money operators, and payment service providers to implement a new cybersecurity levy, following the provisions laid out in the Cybercrime (Prohibition, Prevention, etc) (Amendment) Act 2024.

According to the Act, a levy amounting to 0.5 per cent of the value of all electronic transactions will be collected and remitted to the National Cybersecurity Fund, overseen by the Office of the National Security Adviser.

Financial institutions are required to apply the levy at the point of electronic transfer origination.

The deducted amount is to be explicitly noted in customer accounts under the descriptor “Cybersecurity Levy” and remitted by the financial institution. All financial institutions are required to start implementing the levy within two weeks from the issuance of the circular.

By implication, the deduction of the levy by financial institutions should commence on May 20, 2024.

However, financial institutions are to make their remittances in bulk to the NCF account domiciled at the CBN by the fifth business day of every subsequent month.

The circular also stipulates a timeframe for financial institutions to reconfigure their systems to ensure complete and timely submission of remittance files to the Nigeria Interbank Settlement Systems  Plc as follows: “Commercial, Merchant, Non-Interest, and Payment Service Banks – Within four weeks of the issuance of the Circular.

“All other Financial Institutions (Microfinance Banks, Primary Mortgage Banks, Development Financial Institutions) – Within eight weeks of the issuance of the Circular,” the circular noted.

The CBN has emphasised strict adherence to this mandate, warning that any financial institution that fails to comply with the provisions will face severe penalties. As outlined in the Act, non-compliant entities are subject to a minimum fine of two per cent of their annual turnover upon conviction.

The circular provides a list of transactions currently deemed eligible for exemption, to avoid multiple applications of the levy.

These are loan disbursements and repayments, salary payments, intra-account transfers within the same bank or between different banks for the same customer, and intra-bank transfers between customers of the same bank.

Exemptions include other financial institutions’ transfers to their correspondent banks, interbank placements, banks’ transfers to CBN and vice versa, inter-branch transfers within a bank, cheque clearing and settlements, letters of credit, and banks’ recapitalisation-related funding.

Others are bulk funds movement from collection accounts, savings, and deposits including transactions involving long-term investments such as treasury bills, bonds, and commercial papers, and government social welfare programmes transactions.

These may include pension payments, non-profit and charitable transactions including donations to registered non-profit organisations or charities, educational institutions transactions, including tuition payments and other transactions involving schools, universities, or other educational institutions, and transactions involving the bank’s internal accounts, inter-branch accounts, reserve accounts, nostro and vostro accounts, and escrow accounts.

The introduction of the new levy sparked varied reactions among stakeholders as it is expected to raise the cost of conducting business in Nigeria and could potentially hinder the growth of digital transaction adoption.

‘Stop levy now’

Members of the House of Representatives on Thursday asked the Central Bank of Nigeria to withdraw the circular directing financial institutions to commence implementation of the 0.5 per cent cybersecurity levy, describing it as “ambiguous”.

The development was in response to a motion on the urgent need to halt and modify the implementation of the cybersecurity levy, moved by Kingsley Chinda.

According to the House, the CBN is to withdraw the initial circular, and “issue a more understandable one”.

Chinda had drawn the attention of the House to multiple interpretations of the CBN directive against the specifications in the Cybersecurity Act.

The House then expressed worry, that the Act would be implemented in error if immediate steps were not taken, to address the concerns around the interpretation of the CBN directive and the Cybersecurity Act.

However, sources with knowledge of Tinubu’s position on the issue told Sunday PUNCH that the President was aware of the economic burden on Nigerians since his hardline economic reforms began last May, adding that he did not want to risk adding to the burden with more levies.

A senior presidency official who preferred not to be named told our correspondent, “The President is sensitive to what Nigerians feel. And he will not want to proceed with implementing a policy that adds to the burden of the people.

“So, he has asked the CBN to hold off on that policy and ordered a review. I would have said he ordered the CBN, but that is not appropriate because the CBN is autonomous. But he has asked the CBN to hold off on it and review things again.”

Another presidency official who preferred to remain anonymous as he was not authorised to speak on the issue said these discrepancies prompted the President to order a review.

“If you look at it, the law predates the Tinubu administration. It was enacted in 2015 and signed by Goodluck Jonathan. It is only being implemented now.

“You know he (Tinubu) was not around when that directive was being circulated. And he does not want to present his government as being insensitive. As it is now, the CBN has held off the instruction to banks to start charging people. So, the President is sensitive. His goal is not to just tax Nigerians like that. That is not his intention. So, he has ordered a review of that law.”

 

Punch

In a series of Friday night raids on three villages in northwest Nigeria, gunmen kidnapped more than 100 individuals, according to reports from a district head and residents on Saturday. The incident marks yet another abduction in a region plagued by pervasive insecurity.

Kidnapping has become rampant in Nigeria's northwest, with armed groups targeting villages, highways, and schools, often demanding ransom payments from victims' families. Bala, the head of a district in Zamfara's Birnin-Magaji local government area, disclosed that 38 men and 67 women and children were missing following the attacks on the villages of Gora, Madomawa, and Jambuzu. However, he noted that the actual number of abducted individuals could be higher.

Zamfara has become a hub for kidnapping gangs, who carry out attacks and retreat into forest hideouts. Despite military efforts to combat these groups, attacks persist. Attempts to reach Yezid Abubakar, the Zamfara police spokesperson, for comment were unsuccessful.

Aminu Aliyu Asha, the village head of Madomawa, recounted how gunmen on motorbikes arrived in his village, firing shots indiscriminately before abducting several residents. He expressed dismay over the breach of a peace agreement reached earlier with the bandits, highlighting previous ransom payments made to deter attacks.

Witnesses shared harrowing tales of loved ones snatched away, including Nusa Sani, who reported that his two brothers were among the abducted, and Garba Kira, who mentioned that 15 passengers in a passing lorry were also taken.

While mass kidnappings were initially associated with jihadist groups a decade ago, armed gangs with no clear ideological allegiance have since adopted the practice, exacerbating Nigeria's economic challenges and deepening the security crisis.

 

Reuters/NewsScroll

The Nigerian Army is investigating how a group of soldiers detained in guard rooms for various offenses managed to break out of the facility at the 8 Division Garrison in Sokoto.

Following the incident, in which Lance Corporal Charles Ekefure was reportedly shot, the Army has detained around 100 soldiers, 10 in each cell, after they clamored for better living conditions.

Army spokesperson, Onyema Nwachukwu, expressed regret over the incident and stated that appropriate sanctions would be applied to the soldiers involved. He emphasized that while the Army acknowledges the need for improved conditions, it cannot condone the unruly behavior displayed by the detainees.

A probe has been initiated by the Chief of Army Staff to determine the extent of the issue and ensure such incidents do not reoccur. Nwachukwu reaffirmed the Army's commitment to upholding professional standards and ensuring fair treatment for all detainees, even those awaiting sentencing for aiding criminal activities.

The Army appreciates the support of Nigerians and remains focused on addressing security challenges in collaboration with other security agencies.

Israel orders new evacuations in Gaza's last refuge of Rafah as it expands military offensive

Israel ordered new evacuations in Gaza’s southern city of Rafah on Saturday, forcing tens of thousands more people to leave as it prepared to expand its military operation deeper into what is considered Gaza’s last refuge, in defiance of growing pressure from close ally the United States and others.

As pro-Palestinian protests continued against the war, Israel’s military also said it was moving into an area of devastated northern Gaza where it asserted that the Hamas militant group has regrouped after seven months of fighting.

Israel has now evacuated the eastern third of Rafah, and top military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said dozens of militants had been killed there as “targeted operations continued.” The United Nations has warned that the planned full-scale Rafah invasion would further cripple humanitarian operationsand cause a surge in civilian deaths.

Rafah borders Egypt near the main aid entry points, which already are affected. Israeli troops have captured the Gaza side of the Rafah crossing, forcing it to shut down. Egypt has refused to coordinate with Israel on the delivery of aid though the crossing because of “the unacceptable Israeli escalation,” the state-owned Al Qahera News television channel reported, citing an unnamed official.

U.S. President Joe Biden has said he won’t provide offensive weapons to Israel for Rafah. On Friday, his administration said there was “reasonable” evidence that Israel had breached international lawprotecting civilians — Washington’s strongest statement yet on the matter.

In response, Ophir Falk, foreign policy adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told The Associated Press that Israel acts in compliance with the laws of armed conflict and the army takes extensive measures to avert civilian casualties, including alerting people to military operations via phone calls and text messages.

More than 1.4 million Palestinians — half of Gaza’s population — have been sheltering in Rafah, most after fleeing Israel’s offensives elsewhere. The latest evacuations are forcing some to return north, where areas are devastated from previous attacks. Aid agencies estimate that 110,000 had left before Saturday’s order that adds 40,000.

“Do we wait until we all die on top of each other? So we’ve decided to leave,” Rafah resident Hanan al-Satari said as people rushed to load mattresses, water tanks and other belongings onto vehicles.

“The Israeli army does not have a safe area in Gaza. They target everything,” said Abu Yusuf al-Deiri, displaced earlier from Gaza City.

Many people have been displaced multiple times. There are few places left to go. Some Palestinians are being sent to what Israel has called humanitarian safe zones along the Muwasi coastal strip, which is already packed with about 450,000 people in squalid conditions.

Georgios Petropoulos, with the U.N. humanitarian agency in Rafah, said that aid workers had no supplies to help people set up in new locations.

“We simply have no tents, we have no blankets, no bedding,” he said.

The World Food Program had said it would run out of food to distribute in southern Gaza by Saturday, Petropoulos said — a further challenge as parts of Gaza face what the WFP chief has called “full-blown famine.” Aid groups have said that fuel will be depleted soon, forcing hospitals to shut down critical operations.

Heavy fighting was also underway in northern Gaza, where Hagari said that the air force was carrying out airstrikes. Palestinians in Jabaliya, Beit Lahiya and surrounding areas were told to leave for shelters in the west of Gaza City, warned that Israel would strike with “great force.”

Northern Gaza was the first target of Israel’s ground offensive launched after Hamas and other militants attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking another 250 hostage. They still hold about 100 captives and the remains of more than 30. Hamas on Saturday said that hostage Nadav Popplewell had died after being wounded in an Israeli airstrike a month ago, but provided no evidence.

Israel’s bombardment and ground offensives have killed more than 34,800 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which doesn’t distinguish between civilians and combatants in its figures. Israel blames Hamas for civilian casualties, accusing it of embedding in densely populated residential areas.

Civil authorities in Gaza gave more details of mass graves that the Health Ministry announced earlier at Shifa hospital, the largest in northern Gaza and the target of an earlier Israeli offensive. Authorities said most of the 80 bodies were patients who died from lack of care. The Israeli army said “any attempt to blame Israel for burying civilians in mass graves is categorically false.”

At least 19 people, including eight women and eight children, were killed overnight in central Gaza in strikes that hit Zawaida, Maghazi and Deir al-Balah, according to Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital and an AP journalist who counted the bodies.

“Children, what is the fault of the children who died?” one relative said. A woman stroked the face of one of the children lying on the ground.

Another round of cease-fire talks in Cairo ended earlier this week without a breakthrough, after Israel rejected a deal that Hamas said it accepted.

Tens of thousands of people attended the latest anti-government protest in Israel on Saturday evening amid growing pressure on Netanyahu to make a deal.

“I think the (Rafah) operation is not meant for the hostages and not meant for killing the Hamas, it’s meant for just for one thing, save the government,” protester Kobi Itzhaki said.

 

AP

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

With a surprise cross-border attack, Russia ruthlessly exposes Ukraine’s weaknesses

The town of Vovchansk in the northern Kharkiv region, liberated from Russian occupation more than 18 months ago, awoke Friday to intense shelling and aerial bombardment. Russia has found another way of stretching Ukraine’s already thin blue line.

President Volodymyr Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials said that Russian efforts to advance towards the town had been thwarted, but the Russians have since tried to cut road links with Vovchansk.

The Russians launched battalion-strength attacks along a 60-kilometer stretch of the border on Friday, claiming to occupy several villages in what is known as the ‘gray zone’ along the frontier, after focusing much of their offensive capabilities this year on a grinding advance in Donetsk in the east that has seen incremental but significant progress.

As of Saturday, it appeared the Russians still held a handful of Ukrainian border villages, with intense aerial bombardment continuing in the Vovchansk area.

The cross-border attack is yet another example of what’s going wrong for the Ukrainians this year. Their forces are thinly stretched, with much less artillery than the Russians, grossly inadequate air defenses and above all a lack of soldiers. Their plight has been worsened by dry weather, allowing Russian mechanized units to move more easily.

The deputy head of Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, Major-General Vadym Skibitsky, told the Economist last week: “Our problem is very simple: we have no weapons. They always knew April and May would be a difficult time for us.”

Ukrainian intelligence estimates that despite immense losses since the full-scale invasion began, Russia has more than half-a-million men now inside Ukraine or at its borders. It is also “generating a division of reserves” in central Russia, according to Skibitsky.

The northern border assault follows the creation of a new Russian military grouping called Sever [North].  George Barros at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington told CNN that Sever is an “operationally significant group.”

“Russia sought to generate 60,000-100,000 troops for its group to attack Kharkiv and we assess it’s closer to 50,000,” Barros says, but “it still has a lot of combat power.”

It’s from this new force that units of armored infantry tried to cross the border. The available evidence suggests they were expected and suffered significant losses. But if more elite units join (there are reports that elements from other divisions may do so) Russia’s ambitions could grow.

As a Ukrainian special forces unit told CNN this weekend, “This is only the beginning, the Russians have a bridgehead for further offensives.”

One former Ukrainian officer who writes about the conflict on the blog Frontelligence says that “Manpower shortages compel Ukraine to avoid deploying large units along the border continuously, with fully stocked and ready for immediate-use artillery.”

He expects the situation to evolve, “with Russian forces deploying more units to penetrate additional border areas or to reinforce initial successes.”

Several analysts expect the Russians to broaden the border attacks westwards to Sumy region, which has seen months of raids by Russian special forces.

The Sever grouping could not attack and occupy a city the size of Kharkiv, but that’s likely not the goal. Barros says that it is instead to compel Ukrainian forces to pivot from Donetsk to Kharkiv region. The Russians seek to “thin Ukrainian forces out along the 600-mile frontline and create opportunities, specifically in Donetsk oblast, which is Russia’s main operational objective for 2024,” Barros says.

The latest cross-border assaults may also divert Ukrainian units from the defense of Kupiansk, also in Kharkiv region, where a Russian assault has stalled for months, as well as create a buffer zone inside Ukraine that the Kremlin says it wants to reduce attacks on Russian cities like Belgorod.

Upping the tempo

What’s happening in Kharkiv is not isolated. The Ukrainian military acknowledged this week a spike in combat engagements (more than 150 on Thursday alone), coming on top of a marked increase from March to April.

In effect, the Russians have the manpower to stretch Ukrainian defenses through multiple points of attack hundreds of kilometers apart, forcing Kyiv to guess where and when an anticipated early-summer offensive will focus.

The increased tempo of attacks exacerbates Ukraine’s two critical vulnerabilities: insufficient manpower and sparse air defenses. Russia is exploiting both in a hurry, keen to establish facts on the ground before a new wave of Western aid can help. That is at least weeks away in any meaningful amounts.

“Manpower remains a core challenge, and Ukraine is working to restore its existing degraded brigades as well as from about 10 new maneuver brigades,” Barros says.

Only in the last month has a law been passed to expand mobilization, nearly two years after Russia mobilized some 300,000 additional troops. The process was bogged down in the Ukrainian parliament for months, and President Zelensky was wary of both the cost and the political fallout of a more extensive mobilization. The numerical inferiority has sharply worsened across the frontlines, providing Russian commanders with a growing number of opportunities to probe for weaknesses.

Western analysts believe that in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk, for example, the Ukrainians may be outnumbered by 10:1, as well as suffering a chronic imbalance in shells and a complete lack of air cover. One Ukrainian military blogger this week estimated that elements of as many as 15 Russian motorized rifle brigades (each of which would have up to 1,000 men) were operating in the Chasiv Yar direction alone.

Lose the high ground around Chasiv Yar and an important belt of industrial towns and cities: Slaviansk, Kramatorsk and Kostyantinyvka, becomes much more vulnerable.

Skibitsky told the Economist that losing Chasiv Yar was a distinct possibility - “not today or tomorrow, of course, but all depending on our reserves and supplies.”

North-east of Chasiv Yar, a soldier called Stanislav told Ukrainian television this week that after a month of “very active hostilities” the Russians “are advancing from the direction of Kreminna, where they are accumulating great reserves.”

“Huge numbers of Russian infantry are attacking day and night, in large and small groups,” the soldier said.

Besides the shortage of trained soldiers, “Russia is leveraging Russian airspace as a sanctuary to strike Kharkiv oblast, highlighting the urgent need for the US to provide more long-range air defense assets and to allow the Ukrainians to use them to intercept Russian aircraft in Russian airspace,” says Barros.

The United States announced Friday a $400 million package of air defense munitions and other weapons, but much more will be needed.

Ukraine’s losses are compounded by a lack of prepared defensive positions behind the front lines. where they could fall back. In Krasnohorivka, for example, Ukrainian units were able for months to use apartment buildings and a brick factory as defensive positions. Slowly they have been obliterated – with one Russian military blogger claiming that artillery fire had buried them “under the rubble of their own shelters.”

President Zelensky and others have talked more about “active defense” – having better defensive fortifications as a building block to turn the tide on Russian advances. Zelensky himself has toured such fortifications. But they are too few and too late in critical areas, especially in Donetsk.

Zelensky asserted this week that “we will be able to stop the [Russians] in the east” when the aid arrives. But he acknowledged that “the situation there is really difficult” and contended that the aid that’s arrived so far is “not the volumes that were voted for.”

“We need everything to come faster,” he added.

Every day that it doesn’t, the Russians edge forward – and the Ukrainians lose soldiers they can’t afford to lose.

Barros says the Russians were prepared for the hiatus in military aid. “The recent Russian gains we see now are not merely opportunistic; the Russians prepared for it and are now exploiting it. Ukraine may need to make difficult decisions due to slowness of US action and the dilemma that is now causing.”

That may amount to trading territory for time. And ultimately accepting that much of the territory now lost may not be recovered.

 

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

The entire Ukrainian society would need to make sacrifices and forget about their peaceful lives to defeat such an enemy as Russia, Defense Ministry spokesman Dmitry Lazutkin has argued.

Kiev is overhauling its military service system to boost conscription numbers following a series of setbacks in its conflict with Moscow, with harsh reforms set to come into force next week.

“Globally speaking, starting on May 18, when the mobilization law comes into force, first of all, the approach to this war will change,”Lazutkin told Espresso TV on Saturday. “Because this situation, when some people are fighting at the front lines, while others are living their quiet lives, is obviously coming to an end.”

Life in Kiev is “strikingly different” from the situation in the east of the country, which is “abnormal,” according to the official.

“It would be normal if our enemy was weak. But with such an enemy, the whole country and the whole society need to mobilize,”Lazutkin added.

Ukraine has been desperate to replace nearly half a million casualties – by Moscow’s estimates – since the outbreak of hostilities with Russia in February 2022. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said last week that Ukraine has lost more than 111,000 soldiers in 2024 alone.

Last month, President Vladimir Zelensky enacted amendments to the conscription rules, lowering the draft age to 25, automating summons and greatly expanding the powers of enlistment officers while introducing assorted restrictions for draft dodgers. 

The country’s foreign ministry has suspended consular services for military-eligible Ukrainians abroad. Under the legislation, the fines for violations of the military registration rules will also increase up to $520, with Ukrainian authorities threatening to block bank accounts and impose penalties on the property of those trying to avoid military service.

In response to the changes, there has been a surge in Ukrainians men seeking to flee the country. Border Service spokesman Andrey Demchenko recently said that around 120-150 people are caught trying to flee Ukraine every day, while some end up dying while trying to cross the border.

 

CNN/RT