Despite its status as Africa’s largest crude oil producer, Nigeria spent N1.19 trillion importing crude oil in the first quarter of 2025, underscoring a deepening crisis in domestic crude supply to local refineries.

This revelation comes from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its latest Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report, which shows that imported crude—categorised as “Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude”—ranked as the country’s third most imported product, trailing only gas oil (N1.83tn) and petrol (N1.76tn). Together, these three fuel-related imports accounted for over N4.78tn—more than 30% of Nigeria’s total import bill of N15.43tn in the quarter.

The United States emerged as Nigeria’s top supplier of imported crude oil, shipping in N726.84 billion worth—approximately 61% of total crude imports. Angola and Algeria followed, supplying N223.58 billion and N122.37 billion worth of crude, respectively.

The spike in crude oil imports reflects a broader systemic failure: local refineries—ranging from large-scale plants like the Dangote Refinery to modular operations—are unable to secure adequate feedstock from domestic sources. As a result, they are turning to international markets for consistent and commercially viable supply.

This development has alarmed industry stakeholders, given Nigeria’s official daily crude production, which recently rose above 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd). Despite this, the Crude Oil Refinery-owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) has confirmed that local refineries, especially modular ones, have received virtually zero crude allocations under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO), a key policy framework mandated by the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021.

CORAN’s Publicity Secretary, Eche Idoko, described the situation as “herculean,” forcing refiners to rely on costly and logistically challenging private import arrangements. “Many modular refineries are producing far below capacity. None of them have benefited from the naira-for-crude initiative,” he said.

Oil producers, according to Idoko and other industry players, prefer to sell crude to international traders in pursuit of foreign exchange, bypassing domestic supply obligations. An estimated 500,000 barrels of crude meant for local refining are reportedly being diverted abroad daily.

In response, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has moved to enforce compliance with local supply mandates. The agency recently banned the export of crude oil allocated to domestic refineries, warning that such diversions violate the law. NUPRC Chief Executive Gbenga Komolafe stated that export permits would be denied for any crude cargo intended for local refining but diverted offshore.

Nonetheless, concerns remain over enforcement. CORAN has welcomed the NUPRC directive but says implementation must be firm and consistent. “We hope international oil companies will cooperate. We urge President Bola Tinubu’s economic team to prioritise the modular refinery sector as a strategic tool to strengthen the naira and reduce import dependence,” Idoko appealed.

According to NUPRC, eight refineries—including the Dangote Refinery—require a combined 770,500 bpd in the first half of 2025. This figure represents about 37% of Nigeria’s projected average daily crude output of 2.07 million bpd for the period. Facilities listed in the NUPRC report include:

• Dangote Refinery (Lagos)

• Warri Refinery (125,000 bpd)

• Kaduna Refinery (110,000 bpd)

• Port Harcourt Refinery (60,000 bpd)

• Aradel Holdings Refinery (11,000 bpd, Rivers State)

• OPAC Refinery (10,000 bpd, Delta State)

• WalterSmith Refinery (5,000 bpd, Imo State)

• Duport Midstream (2,500 bpd, Edo State)

• Edo Refinery (1,500 bpd, Edo State)

Despite the planned domestic crude allocations, oil producers exported N12.96tn worth of crude and petroleum products in Q1 2025, accounting for nearly 63% of Nigeria’s total exports. This figure, while lower than the N15.49tn recorded in Q1 2024, reflects continued prioritisation of foreign markets over domestic needs.

India, the Netherlands, the United States, France, and Spain were Nigeria’s top crude buyers in the period under review.

As fuel imports continue to dominate Nigeria’s import profile—despite its oil wealth—the country’s refining sector remains crippled by poor access to crude. Until domestic supply obligations are fully enforced and incentivised, experts warn, Nigeria will remain stuck in the paradox of exporting raw crude while importing refined and even unrefined fuel.