Each fall, a telephone call from Stockholm launches one or a few scholars to international fame with the bestowal of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences – a process that Irving Wallace dramatized in his 1962 potboiler The Prize.

This year, the call went to three figures who are already well-known, the economists Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and the political scientist James A. Robinson of the University of Chicago. The three were recognized for their “studies of how institutions are formed and affect prosperity,” and in an interesting twist, the award comes exactly 15 years after the committee conferred it on Elinor Ostrom for her own work on institutions, particularly “for her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons.”

Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson (or AJR, as they are known) won the award primarily for their research into the role of colonialism in determining the economic fate of nations. Prominent social-science projects from Max Weber’s The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism to Jared Diamond’s Gun, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies have long sought to explain the “great divergence” between Europe and its wealthy offshoots and the rest of the world. While AJR had the same goal, they pursued it in a new way, by asking why societies that were once relatively rich are now relatively poor, and vice versa.

In an influential 2002 paper, “Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution,” AJR conclude that the key determinant of future growth is whether a country has “inclusive institutions” that allow economic gains to be shared broadly, as opposed to “extractive institutions” that siphon wealth to a narrow elite.

Whether a colonial power bequeathed inclusive or extractive institutions depended on various environmental and other factors. For example, in their most widely cited paper, “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development,” AJR argue that the most effective predictor of future economic growth was how hospitable the terrain was for European settlers. The colonizers invested in good institutions in regions where their own chances of survival were higher – namely, the New World colonies of North America, Australia, and New Zealand.

AJR’s scholarship is sophisticated and innovative, and I, for one, appreciate their focus on institutions. They have continued the tradition pioneered by the Nobel laureate economist Douglass North in his magnum opus, Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Their prescriptions, however, are not new. Conventional “law and economics” theories and the Washington Consensus have long emphasized the importance of the rule of law in underwriting growth.

By contrast, Ostrom’s work on community-led institutional solutions genuinely broke new ground. She fundamentally altered our understanding of the role played by “polycentric institutions” that go beyond the dichotomies of market and state. Until she undertook her ground-breaking work (summarized in Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action), it was widely assumed that common property – including critical ecological configurations like forests, water systems, fisheries, and the global atmosphere – was inherently inefficient.

Ostrom’s extensive empirical investigations into self-organized systems – from water-management in California to irrigation in Nepal – demonstrated that this is not always the case. And her lab experiments showed that people are more willing to enforce mutually agreed rules than previously thought.

Most critically, Ostrom’s work examined the variables that correlate with, or create conditions for, cooperation to solve collective-action problems, showing (contrary to Garett Hardin’s classic work) that the challenges associated with the commons need not end in tragedy. By demonstrating that the success of institutions depends heavily on participants’ engagement with, and investments in, them, she pointed toward an alternative explanation for AJR’s results.

Recall AJR’s argument that countries where Western institutions were imposed, but where Europeans also settled in large numbers and thrived, later experienced the most rapid and robust growth. As I argue in a recent paper, the source of these societies’ success may not have been their inherent institutional superiority, but rather their inhabitants’ relative psychological familiarity with those institutions. After all, the cognitive and contextual mismatch between institutions and their surrounding environment has long been understood to play a part in the difficulties surrounding “legal transplantation” (importing legal codes from elsewhere).

In Wallace’s novel, the protagonist, poignantly, wins the Nobel Prize in Literature for a book called The Perfect State. While we wait for that ideal institution to be devised, we remain stubbornly reliant on flawed people to prop up our institutions. Fortunately, Ostrom showed that this is possible. As we celebrate AJR’s contributions, let us not forget Ostrom’s. While Acemoglu and Johnson’s bestseller Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty illuminates one path to prosperity, Ostrom’s scholarship shows that there could be many.

Project Syndicate

Melissa Houston

In business, setbacks and failures are inevitable. Every successful entrepreneur can share stories of moments they stumbled or faced rejection, obstacles, or outright failure. But here’s the truth: setbacks don't define the end of your journey; they are simply chapters in your story. If harnessed correctly, failures can be the stepping stones to your success.

Here’s how to transform your setbacks into valuable lessons:

1. Accept and Embrace Failure as a Learning Opportunity

Many entrepreneurs feel immense pressure to be perfect and avoid failure. However, failure is often the best teacher. When you experience a setback, the first step is to accept it and look for the lesson within it. Analyze what went wrong and consider what you could have done differently. Embrace the experience, as each mistake is a stepping stone to greater wisdom. This shift in perspective will allow you to reframe failure as a growth opportunity.

Key Takeaway: Develop a habit of conducting post-mortem assessments after setbacks. Ask yourself, “What can I learn from this?” and “How can I apply this lesson to my next venture?”

2. Refocus on Your Mission and Vision

When you experience a setback, it’s easy to get disheartened and lose sight of why you started. Return to your "why." Why did you start this business in the first place? What impact do you want to make? Reaffirming your mission and vision can help you stay grounded and remind you that setbacks are temporary obstacles on your long-term journey. Realigning with your purpose can reignite your passion and motivate you to keep moving forward.

Key Takeaway: Write down your mission and vision statements. Refer to them whenever you face a setback to stay focused on the bigger picture.

3. Adapt and Pivot When Necessary

Setbacks often indicate that something in your business strategy needs adjustment. Perhaps there is a product-market misalignment, or your marketing efforts aren’t resonating with your audience. Be willing to adapt and pivot. Some of the world’s most successful companies started with one idea, hit multiple roadblocks, and then pivoted into an entirely new direction that ultimately led to their success.

Key Takeaway: Evaluate what’s not working in your business model and explore new directions that align with your market’s needs. Flexibility is often the key to resilience.

4. Strengthen Your Skills and Knowledge

Failures and setbacks often expose gaps in knowledge or skill. Use this as an opportunity to grow by seeking new information or acquiring skills that can make you more resilient. Whether it’s learning about financial management, sales strategies, or mastering digital marketing, the more equipped you are, the better you’ll be at navigating challenges in the future.

Key Takeaway: Identify areas for improvement and invest in education or mentorship to fill those gaps. Business is a journey of constant learning, and setbacks reveal what you need to master next.

5. Build a Support System and Seek Mentorship

Resilient entrepreneurs know they don’t have to go through difficult times alone. A strong support system is invaluable, whether it’s a network of peers, mentors, or coaches. Surrounding yourself with people who have experienced similar struggles can provide guidance and encouragement when you need it most. Their insights can help you see challenges in a new light and discover strategies for moving forward.

Key Takeaway: Build a network of mentors, peers, and advisors who can support you through challenges. Join industry groups or networkingcommunities to find others who can help you stay motivated.

6. Set New Goals and Take Action

Failures can derail you if you let them, but they can also propel you to set new goals. Reevaluate your objectives and set clear, actionable goals that can guide you forward. Start small if necessary. Taking even the smallest steps toward improvement can build your confidence and keep your momentum strong.

Key Takeaway: Use setbacks as a motivator to redefine your goals. By setting and achieving small objectives, you can start building a new path to success.

7. Develop a Resilient Mindset

In the end, your mindset will be your biggest asset in overcoming setbacks. A resilient mindset will help you bounce back, take ownership of your mistakes, and continue pushing forward. Remind yourself that setbacks are part of the journey, and every successful entrepreneur has overcome them. Cultivating a growth mindset means seeing every failure as part of your success journey rather than a sign to give up.

Key Takeaway: Practice resilience by focusing on self-care, staying positive, and embracing challenges as opportunities for growth. Remember, a setback is not the end—it's a setup for a comeback.

The bottom line is that turning setbacks into success requires a proactive approach, a strong support network, and a resilient mindset. When you embrace failures as learning opportunities, stay committed to your mission, and keep moving forward with determination, you are already on the path to success.

Remember, every failure brings you closer to your goals if you’re willing to learn and adapt. Your business journey may be filled with challenges, but each setback holds the potential to shape you into a stronger, wiser, and more successful entrepreneur.

Forbes

Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, minister of interior, says the ministry’s command and control centre established to curb the illegal entry of foreigners into the country is fully active.

Speaking on Tuesday during his appearance on Politics Today, a Channels Television programme, Tunji-Ojo said the centre has commenced 24-hour operation since Monday.

On October 28, the minister said the federal government planned to establish a command and control centre to check irregular migration into the country.

He noted that the centre would be responsible for the rigorous screening of individuals entering Nigeria via land borders.

“We did the induction programme about two weeks ago. Just yesterday, we started the 24-hour operation of the command and control centre at Soka, the immigration headquarters in Abuja,” Tunji-Ojo said.

“All our international airports are on it. It’s there, live and direct. Even our land and sea borders are being integrated there because of what we call a regular migration control centre.

“And the APIS that I promised the other time—that’s the advanced passenger information system—is also live now.

“We started receiving data from KLM and a lot of others. So, we have started the pre-profiling of people before they come into Nigeria, taking a decision, looking and integrating, which is integrated to the criminal records system, to the Interpol, and a lot of other things I won’t be able to talk deeply into. So that is live and direct.”

The minister said the control centre enables authorities to be well-informed about individuals, their current location, origin, recent movements, and travel route before they arrive in the country.

“So, what it means now is that it’s no longer subjective profiling. What we do now is objective profiling, just like you see anywhere in the world. And what we have in Nigeria, it’s not just an API,” he said.

“It’s an IAPI, an interactive API, which is top-notch, the best you can get anywhere in the world, and I challenge anybody to dispute that; we already have that.”

He added that every detail, from the command centre to the visa approval center, has been carefully addressed to guarantee seamless functionality within the complex.

Tunji-Ojo said the ministry installed a 500kW and 0.5MW solar farm to ensure uninterrupted operations of the control centre.

The Cable

The The Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) has restricted licensed flight crew members from operating multiple airlines.

NCAA issued the restriction, saying its findings shows that pilots and other crew members render services to different airlines.

In a circular NCAA/DGCA/AOL dated November 6th 2024 and signed by the Ag. Director-General, Civil Aviation, Chris Najomo, declared the act as illegal.

According to the circular, instances where pilots operate for more than one airline concurrently pose risk to safety.

It said the licence issued to pilot or any member of the flight crew is operator-specific based on the approved Standards Operating Procedures (SOPs).

The circular issued to Accountable Managers/Director of Flight Operations and Chief Pilots titled, “PROHIBITION OF AD-HOC FLIGHT OPERATIONS FOR MULTIPLE AIRLINES” read: “It has come to the notice of the authority through our surveillance reports that licensed
flight crew members utilize the privileges simulators and proficiency checks endersed on their license to operate for multiple airlines.

“The Flight Simulator Training Device/facility approved by the Authority si operator specific based on the training program and the Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) for such an operator.

“Instances where pilots operate for more than one arline concurrently without safety considerations of such actions poses a safety risk to the industry.”

The CAA stated that with effect from the date of issuance of this Directive, all operators and holders of pilot license are informed that this action will be treated as a violation of the Nigeria Civil Aviation Regulations.

“The Authority wil take appropriate enforcement action on violators of this directive, affective from 11th November, 2024.

“Simulator renewals from henceforih will be tied to the Operator. Please comply accordingly,” the circular added.

Daily Trust

Multichoice Group, an African pay-TV operator, says its Nigerian subsidiary lost 243,000 subscribers across its DStv and GOtv services between April and September 2024.

In its financial result for the year ended September 30, 2024, published on Tuesday, MultiChoice said high cost of food, electricity, and petrol have forced many of its customers to ditch their decoders.

The company said Nigeria and Zambia recorded the largest share of subscribers loss.

It added that the pressure on its subscriber base in Rest of Africa (RoA) operations continued from the previous year leading to a loss of 566,000 subscribers across the operations in the six months under review.

“The group’s linear subscriber base declined by 11% or 1.8m subscribers YoY to 14.9m active subscribers at 30 September 2024,” MultiChoice said.

“The loss in the Rest of Africa has been primarily due to the significant consumer pressure in Nigeria, where inflation has remained above 30% for the majority of the last 12 months and, more recently, due to extreme power disruptions in Zambia.

“Of this decline, 298k related to Zambia and 243k related to Nigeria, with remaining markets on the continent reflecting only a minor decline of 25k.”

On foreign exchange (FX) rate, the company said the continued depreciation of the naira against the dollar has resulted in further losses on non-quasi equity loans.

“The group held USD11m in cash in Nigeria at period-end, down from USD39m at end FY24, a consequence of consistent focus on remitting cash, the impact of

translating the balance at the weaker naira and the write-off of the USD21m receivable relating to the cash held with Heritage Bank before its license was revoked and the bank was liquidated,” MultiChoice said.

‘COMPANY FACING MOST CHALLENGING CONDITIONS’ 

Commenting on the company’s results, Calvo Mawela, MultiChoice group chief executive officer (CEO), said the company is facing its most challenging operating conditions in almost 40 years.

To generate returns, Mawela said the company has been “proactive in its focus to right-size the business for the current economic realities and industry changes”.

He said while operating across Africa “typically subjects the group to currency moves, abnormal currency weakness over the past 18 months has reduced the group’s profits by close to R7 billion”.

“Combined with the impact of a weak macro environment on consumers’ disposable income and therefore on subscriber growth, it required the Group to fundamentally adjust its cost base – which is exactly what has been done,” he said.  

“We are making good progress in addressing the technical insolvency that resulted from non-cash accounting entries at the end of the last financial year. 

“We expect to return to a positive net equity position by the end of November this year, supported by a number of developments and initiatives. The Group’s liquidity position remains strong, with over ZAR10bn in total available funds.”

On May 1, MultiChoice implemented an increase in subscription prices for DStv and GOtv packages — despite the tribunal ruling against it on April 25.

The next month, the tribunal fined MultiChoice N150 million and ordered the company to provide one-month free subscriptions on DStv and GOtv to Nigerians.

MultiChoice vowed to appeal the ruling.

The Cable

Israeli strikes pound Lebanon, Hezbollah strikes back

The Israeli military pounded Beirut's southern suburbs with airstrikes on Tuesday, mounting one of its heaviest daytime attacks yet on the Hezbollah-controlled area, and struck the middle of the country where more than 20 people were killed.

Smoke billowed over Beirut as around a dozen strikes hit the southern suburbs starting in midmorning. After posting warnings to civilians on social media, the Israeli military said it struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut's Dahiyeh area and later said it dismantled most of the group's weapons and missile facilities.

Israel said it had taken steps to reduce harm to civilians and repeated its standing accusation that Hezbollah deliberately embeds itself into civilian areas to use residents as human shields, a charge Hezbollah rejects.

In northern Israel, two people were killed in the city of Nahariya when a residential building was struck, Israeli police said. Hezbollah later claimed responsibility for a drone attack that it said was aimed at a military base east of Nahariya.

Israelis were forced to take shelter from drone attacks across the north, the military said. One hit the yard of a kindergarten in a Haifa suburb, where the children had been rushed into a shelter, rescue workers said. None were hurt.

In Mount Lebanon province in the middle of Lebanon, Israeli strikes killed eight people in the village of Baalchmay southeast of Beirut and 15 people in Joun village in the Chouf district, Lebanon's health ministry said.

In the south, five people were killed in an Israeli strike on Tefahta, two in a raid on Nabatieh and one in the coastal city of Tyre. Another person was killed in a strike in Hermel in the northeast, the ministry said.

Beirut residents have largely fled the southern suburbs since Israel began bombing there in September. Footage of one strike shared on social media showed two missiles slamming into a building of around 10 stories, demolishing it and sending up clouds of debris.

Ignited by the Gaza war, the conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah had been rumbling on for nearly a year before Israel went on the offensive in September, pounding Lebanon with airstrikes and sending troops into the south.

Israel has dealt Hezbollah heavy blows, killing many of its leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, flattening large areas of the southern suburbs, destroying border villages in the south and striking more widely across Lebanon.

Israeli military chief Herzi Halevi, visiting troops in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, said Israeli forces were "operating very strongly" in the country.

Since hostilities erupted a year ago, Israeli attacks have killed at least 3,287 people in Lebanon, the majority in the last seven weeks, according to the Lebanese health ministry. Its figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Hezbollah attacks have killed about 100 civilians and soldiers in northern Israel, the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and southern Lebanon over the last year, according to Israel. Hezbollah late on Tuesday said its forces had killed more than 100 Israeli soldiers since Oct. 1.

In a statement, Hezbollah said that since that date it had forced an Israeli retreat from several towns in southern Lebanon, without naming them, and promised more strikes against Israeli military targets. Israel's military said that Hezbollah fired 55 projectiles into Israel on Tuesday.

WAR GOALS

The United States has sought to broker a ceasefire in Lebanon, and the outgoing administration of Democratic President Joe Biden hasn't given up hope of reaching a deal in its final months.

White House envoy Amos Hochstein told reporters that he thinks "there is a shot" at a truce in Lebanon soon, Axios reported on Tuesday, a contrast to peace efforts in Gaza where Qatar has suspended its mediation.

Similarly, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saarsaid on Monday there had been "a certain progress" in ceasefire talks for Lebanon.

But Israel's new Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Monday there would be no ceasefire in Lebanon until Israel achieves its goals there, including disarming Hezbollah and returning evacuated Israelis to their homes in northern Israel.

Republican U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday chose former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, a staunchly pro-Israel conservative, to be ambassador to Israel.

Potentially signaling that the U.S. under Trump will reduce pressure on Israel to restrain its warfare, Huckabee has opposed calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, and Saar on Tuesday praised his nomination.

The Lebanese government, which includes Hezbollah, has repeatedly called for a ceasefire based on the full implementation of a U.N. Resolution that ended a war between the group and Israel in 2006.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

North Korea ratifies mutual defence treaty with Russia

North Korea has ratified a mutual defence treaty with Russia signed by the two countries' leaders in June, which calls for each side to come to the other's aid in case of an armed attack, state media KCNA said on Tuesday.

The report came amid international criticismover increasing military cooperation between the two countries, with North Korea having sent tens of thousands of troops to Russia to support its war against Ukraine.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a decree to ratify the pact on Monday, KCNA said, adding it takes effect when both sides exchange the ratification instruments.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has also signed the treaty into law, which stipulates that the two countries should "immediately provide military and other assistance using all available means" if either side is in a state of war.

Kim clinched the accord with Putin at a summitin June, touting it as a step to elevate bilateral ties to something akin to an "alliance".

Seoul, Washington and Kyiv have said there are more than 10,000 North Korean soldiers in Russia, and U.S. officials and Ukraine's defence minister said some of them have engaged in combat in Kursk, near the Ukraine border.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week that North Korean troops had suffered casualties in combat with his country's forces, and the first battles between them "open a new page in instability in the world."

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Five Ukrainian tanks destroyed in Kursk Region – Russian MOD

The Russian military has destroyed five Ukrainian tanks in Russia’s Kursk Region over the past 24 hours, the Defense Ministry in Moscow reported on Tuesday.

During the same period, Kiev has lost more than 300 troops, four infantry fighting vehicles, four artillery pieces, a counter-battery radar station, and other hardware, the ministry added.

Russian forces have been advancing in the areas of the settlements of Daryino, Leonidovo, Malaya Loknya, Nikolaevo-Daryino, and Novoivanovka. Seven Ukrainian counterattacks have also been repelled, according to a statement from the ministry.

Russian aviation and artillery reportedly struck Ukrainian troops in more than two dozen locations across Kursk Region. Air and missile strikes were also carried out against military concentrations in Ukraine’s Sumy Region, which borders Russia, the ministry added.

Kiev’s total losses in just over three months since the launch of its incursion in Kursk Region have reached over 31,700 servicemen, 200 tanks, 131 infantry fighting vehicles, 110 armored personnel carriers and hundreds of pieces of various other equipment, including 11 US-supplied HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, the Russian military stated.

Ukrainian troops invaded Kursk Region on August 6, in the largest attack on internationally recognized Russian territory since the escalation of hostilities between Moscow and Kiev in February 2022. The area under Ukrainian control has been steadily shrinking in recent weeks, but the incursion force is still present in some parts of the region.

On Sunday, Spanish newspaper El Pais reported that Kiev prioritizes holding territories in Kursk Region over defending other parts of the front line where the Russian military has been advancing since the start of the year.

According to the paper, Ukraine currently has two of its “best regiments”operating on Russian territory, which are outfitted with the best available equipment, including German-made Leopard and American-made Abrams tanks.

Ukrainian soldiers told El Pais that troops fighting in Kursk Region rotate every ten days, while their counterparts in Donbass are replaced on average only every 25 days.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin described Ukrainian losses in Kursk Region as “colossal.” He suggested that the whole operation by Kiev made little military sense and was dictated by purely “political considerations” imposed on the Ukrainians by their foreign backers.

“They were ordered – from overseas – to hold on at any cost, at least until the US election [on November 5], to show that all the efforts of the Democratic administration to support Ukraine were not in vain,” according to the Russian leader.

Reuters/RT

Former Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola has issued a stark warning about the worsening socio-economic and political crisis in Nigeria, suggesting that if left unchecked, the country could be on the brink of revolution. Speaking at a national dialogue in Abuja on Monday, Aregbesola expressed grave concern over what he described as “increasing inequality, widespread hunger, insecurity, and the erosion of citizens’ rights,” all of which he believes could fuel widespread unrest.

A former ally of President Bola Tinubu, Aregbesola’s remarks came at a critical time as the nation grapples with escalating poverty, a deepening economic recession, and rising insecurity. Millions of Nigerians are enduring crippling poverty, with food prices soaring, basic goods becoming unaffordable, and violent crime spiraling out of control. Aregbesola pointed out that the growing gap between the nation’s wealthiest elite and the vast majority of struggling citizens was a ticking time bomb.

The ex-governor’s warning is especially poignant given the government’s ongoing crackdown on protests and dissent, particularly against the backdrop of the recent arrest and trial of young Nigerians involved in protests against economic hardship. Aregbesola’s call for a radical shift in governance highlights the growing frustration among Nigerians with a system they feel no longer serves their interests.

“We are seeing worsening economic conditions, where fewer and fewer people are thriving while the majority are sinking deeper into poverty. When I was growing up, wealth was not as concentrated in the hands of a tiny elite as it is today,” Aregbesola said, adding that the current trajectory of the nation—marked by a lack of basic rights and an ever-expanding underclass—may leave many with no choice but to resort to revolt.

Aregbesola, who served as Minister of Interior under the Buhari administration, noted that a key responsibility of government is the welfare and security of its citizens, and lamented that Nigeria’s current leadership has failed on both counts. “A society that cannot guarantee the safety and well-being of its people is a society on the brink of collapse. And once these basic rights are denied, people will resist, even if it leads to revolution,” he warned.

Rising Discontent and the Call for a Parliamentary System

In a broader context, Aregbesola also advocated for a transition to a parliamentary system of government, arguing that Nigeria’s current presidential system, under which power is concentrated in the hands of a single individual, is ill-suited to the country’s size and complexity. “It is unrealistic for one person to govern over 220 million Nigerians without checks and balances,” he said, noting that a parliamentary system would foster a more inclusive and accountable form of governance.

His remarks reflect a growing disillusionment with Nigeria’s presidential system, which critics argue has allowed for authoritarianism and weakened democratic institutions. Aregbesola likened the centralization of power under Nigerian presidents to a form of “modern colonialism,” pointing out the dictatorial tendencies that have characterized Nigerian leadership. “If we continue to believe that one person has the capacity to rule this country alone, we are kidding ourselves. It’s time for a change,” he insisted.

The proposed shift to a parliamentary system, backed by a bill currently before the National Assembly, aims to decentralize power and create a more cooperative form of governance. Aregbesola, who introduced a parliamentary system at the local government level in Osun during his tenure, believes such a system would be better suited to Nigeria’s diverse and populous society.

A Nation on the Edge: The Growing Threat of Revolution

Aregbesola’s warning about the potential for a revolution is echoed by many Nigerians who feel abandoned by a government that seems increasingly out of touch with the reality on the ground. The country is facing its worst economic crisis in decades, with unemployment rates soaring, inflation pushing basic goods out of reach for millions, and insecurity leaving citizens fearful for their lives and livelihoods. The hunger and deprivation felt by ordinary Nigerians have created a volatile environment where protests and uprisings are increasingly seen as viable options for change.

The recent arrest of protesters and the government’s heavy-handed response to dissent underscore the growing tension between the state and the people. Amid increasing calls for a better deal for Nigeria’s citizens, many worry that the government’s inability to address these issues will lead to widespread instability and unrest.

Aregbesola’s remarks are a stark reminder of the fragile state of Nigeria’s democracy. With a growing sense of disenfranchisement among the population, the potential for revolution—driven by the deepening crises of hunger, inequality, and insecurity—has never seemed more likely.

The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) says unsold goods in the manufacturing sector rose to N1.24 trillion in the first half (H1) of 2024.

In the association’s first-half economic report, Francis Meshioye, president of MAN, said the unsold products rose by 357.57 percent year-on-year.

Meshioye attributed the significant rise in unsold inventory to a drop in consumer purchasing power, driven by rising inflation, the removal of subsidies, and the devaluation of the naira.

He said the high volume of unsold inventories highlights the challenges consumers are facing, stressing the need for measures to boost demand and enhance the sector’s performance.

“The inventory of unsold finished products in the manufacturing sector surged by 357.57 percent year-on-year, reaching N1.24 trillion in H1 2024,” the MAN president said.

He said capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector experienced a slight year-on-year decrease, dropping to 56.4 percent in H1 2024 from 56.5 percent in the same period in 2023.

Meshioye, however, reported a 2.8 percent increase compared to H2 2023 — indicating some recovery.

“Real manufacturing output in Nigeria declined by 1.66 per cent year-on-year in H1 2024, falling to N1.34 trillion from N1.36 trillion in H1 2023,” he said.

“In spite of this decline, the sector saw a 9.97 per cent increase compared to H2 2023, driven by a baseline effect.

“In nominal terms, the manufacturing sector’s output in Nigeria increased by 30.38 per cent year-on-year, reaching N5.34 trillion in H1 2024.

“This growth was primarily driven by the sharp rise in domestic prices, as reflected in the Consumer Price Index, which surged to 34.19 per cent in June 2024,” he said.

Meshioye said the manufacturing sector’s local raw material sourcing slightly improved to 56.03 percent in H1 2024, up from 55.4 percent in H1 last year.

He said the modest increase reflects a gradual move towards local sourcing, driven by challenges in accessing foreign exchange.

The MAN president said certain sectors, including non-metallic mineral products and textiles, apparel, and footwear, experienced declines in local sourcing, reflecting the difficulties of moving away from imported raw materials.

‘WEAK NAIRA INCREASED INVESTMENT’

Meshioye also noted that investments in the manufacturing sector continued to grow, reaching N250.13 billion in H1 2024, marking a 29.63 percent year-on-year increase.

He said the increase was mainly driven by the depreciation of the naira, which raised the cost of importing machinery and other necessary assets.

“In real terms, investment spending did not increase, as manufacturers focused on maintaining current production levels rather than expansion due to the challenging economic environment,” the MAN boss said.

“Also, electricity supply to industries showed some improvement in H1 2024, with average daily supply hours increasing to 11.28 hours per day.

“However, the cost of providing alternative power continued to rise, with manufacturers spending N238.31 billion on alternative energy sources in H1 2024, a 7.69 per cent increase from H2 2023.

“The surge in costs was driven by higher prices for diesel, gas, and other energy sources, as well as the need for manufacturers to invest in self-energy generation due to unreliable power supply from the national grid.”

‘H1 2024 MARKED BY SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES FOR MANUFACTURING SECTOR’

Meshioye said the manufacturing sector’s H1 2024 report highlight an urgent need for the implementation of decisive and coherent economic reforms.

He noted that the reforms are intended to tackle the challenges confronting manufacturers.

According to the MAN president, the reviewed period was marked by significant challenges for Nigeria’s manufacturing sector, such as high operational costs, reduced consumer demand, and increasing inflation.

Although some sectors demonstrated resilience and growth according to Meshioye, he said others faced difficulties with declining production values, increasing inventories, and reduced employment.

He said the report focused on manufacturing indicators such as capacity utilisation, production value, inventory levels, use of local raw materials, investments, and expenditure on alternative energy sources, among others.

Meshioye identified key focus areas as strengthening policy consistency, enhancing the business environment, and promoting economic diversification.

“The success of these reforms will be crucial in reversing the current economic downturn, creating jobs, reducing inflation, and improving the overall welfare of Nigerian citizens,” he said.

“As the country navigates through these turbulent times, the resilience of its policy framework and the effectiveness of its economic management will determine the path forward.”

‘LINGERING IMPACT OF HIGH INTEREST RATES HINDERED GROWTH’

Meshioye said the global economy remained resilient during the period, with major economies managing to avoid a severe downturn and reducing inflation without increasing unemployment.

The MAN president, however, said the lingering impact of high interest rates, debt sustainability challenges, persistent geopolitical tensions, and worsening climate risks continued to hinder growth.

He warned that the factors threatened decades of development gains, particularly for developing countries and small island states.

Also, Meshioye said the economic outlook for many African nations had worsened due to high inflation, rising borrowing costs, ongoing exchange rate pressures, and political instability.

He added that Nigeria’s economy is still grappling with significant challenges that have hindered its growth potential and undermined economic stability.

Meshioye said despite efforts to stabilise the economy, including the aggressive monetary tightening by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the desired results in terms of curbing inflation and promoting growth remained elusive.

The Cable

A United States court has reissued an order for the arrest of Allen Onyema, the founder and CEO of Air Peace Limited, over a $20 million bank fraud case that has been pending against him for five years.

The federal district court for Northern Georgia, Atlanta, renewed the arrest warrant on 9 October, following the addition of more charges to the case against Onyema and his co-defendant – Ejiroghene Eghagha, the airline’s Chief of Administration and Finance.

US authorities filed the superseding indictment on 8 October, alleging new counts of obstruction of justice and conspiracy to obstruct justice.

The two counts added to the pre-existing 36 counts of conspiracy, money laundering, bank fraud, credit application fraud, and identity theft. The superseding indictment brought the counts to 38.

On the day the superseding indictment was filed, Assistant US Attorney Christopher Huber filed for a new arrest warrant after the first one issued against Onyema in 2019.

On the following day, 9 October, a deputy clerk of the court signed and delivered the new arrest warrant to the US Marshal, the American body that carries out the arrest of fugitives.

Previous arrest warrants

It will be recalled that preparatory to the filing of the charges in 2019, Russell Vineyard, a magistrate at the United States District Court for the Northern District of Georgia, issued a corresponding warrant of arrestfor Onyema and Eghagha in Canada.

American prosecutors had sought the warrant to enable Canadian law enforcement authorities to take the suspects into custody if sighted in their jurisdiction.

In another arrest warrant issued on 19 November 2019, Justin Anand, an American magistrate of the same court, ordered the US Marshals Service to take them into custody.

Allegations

In the charges pending since 2019, the US authorities accused Onyema of moving suspicious funds from Nigeria to American bank accounts between 2017 and 2018 with the funds allegedly disguised as being meant to be used to purchase aircraft.

Onyema and his co-defendant, Eghagha, allegedly organised the fraud by applying for export letters of credit for the transfer of funds from a Nigerian bank account to the bank account of Onyema’s Atlanta-Georgia-based firm, Springfield Aviation LLC, between 2016 and 2017.

The defendants, according to US prosecutors, applied for the funds purportedly for the purchase of aircraft by Air Peace from Springfield Aviation.

Both Air Peace, a major Nigerian commercial airline, and the US-based Springfield Aviation, are owned by Onyema.

Prosecutors also said the aircraft referenced in each of the export letters of credit sent to the American banks was never owned or sold by Springfield Aviation.

They said the defendants made false statements and reports, and willfully overvalued property to influence the actions of the American banks.

Eghagha was said to have sent the false documents, including fabricated purchase agreements, bills of sale, and valuation documents, to Ebony Mayfield to sign and submit to the respective banks in support of the letters of credit.

Onyema had engaged Ms Mayfield, who was at various times, a bartender, restaurant waitress, and nightclub dancer, in 2016, to act as a manager of Springfield Aviation, and enter into contracts on the firm’s behalf.

Prosecutors said she “had no connection to the aviation business outside of her role with Springfield Aviation and had no education, training, or licensing in the review and valuation of aircraft, including aircraft components.”

In October 2022, the US District Court sentenced Ms Mayfield to three years’ probation for her roles in helping to facilitate the alleged fraud.

Prosecutors continue to allege that Onyema founded and used Springfield Aviation “to facilitate large transfers of funds from his Nigerian bank accounts to the United States.”

Onyema allegedly moved about $15 million from Springfield Aviation’s account with a Wells Fargo Bank branch in Atlanta, Georgia, to his personal savings account with the same bank in 27 transactions in 2017.

Each of the 27 transactions stands alone as a charge of money laundering.

In May 2019, upon discovering that he was under investigation in the Northern District of Georgia for bank fraud, Onyema and Eghagha allegedly directed the Springfield Aviation manager, Ms Mayfield, to sign a key business contract, but also specifically told her to not date the document.

In October 2019, Onyema allegedly caused his attorneys to present that same contract, now falsely dated as being signed on 5 May 2016 (prior to the bank fraud that began in 2016), to the government in an effort to stop the investigation and unfreeze his bank accounts.

The submission of the alleged false documents forms the basis for the new count of obstruction of justice and one count of conspiracy to obstruct justice in the superseding charges.

Superseding charges

The US government added two counts to the charges in a superseding indictment last month.

Announcing the superseding indictment in a statement , the US Attorney Office, Northern District of Georgia, accused Mr Onyema and his co-defendant of “obstruction of justice for submitting false documents to the government in an effort to end an investigation of him that resulted in earlier charges of bank fraud and money laundering.”

Prosecutors said Onyema submitted false documents to US authorities in 2019 in an effort to stop the investigation and unfreeze his bank accounts regarding the alleged $20 million bank fraud.

Eghagha, the airline’s Chief of Administration and Finance, accused of participating in the alleged obstruction scheme, as well as in the earlier bank fraud counts, is Onyema’s co-defendant in the case.

“After allegedly using his airline company as a cover to commit fraud on the United States’ banking system, Onyema, along with his co-defendant, allegedly committed additional crimes of fraud in a failed attempt to derail the government’s investigation of his conduct,” the statement quoted US Attorney Ryan K. Buchanan.

Also, Assistant Special Agent in Charge Lisa Fontanette, Internal Revenue Service – Criminal Investigation Atlanta Field Office, said, “Allegedly, Onyema and his accomplices fraudulently used the U.S. banking system in an effort to hide the source of their ill-gotten money.”

Denial

Air Peace and Onyema’s lawyers have consistently maintained his innocence.

Reacting to the filing of the superseding indictment last month, Air Peace noted in a statement that “both Onyema and Eghagha remain innocent and these are mere allegations, and the case is still in court.”

It added that: “Our legal team is fully engaged with the matter and is working tirelessly to ensure that justice prevails. We remain confident that, through due process, the truth will be revealed, and our CEO and co-defendant will be exonerated.”

The airline argued that Mr Onyema and his legal team have consistently cooperated with authorities throughout the legal process and that Air Peace continues to operate without disruption, upholding its commitment to delivering top-notch services to its valued customers.

“We want to reassure the public that these legal proceedings will not impact the safety, reliability, or day-to-day operations of Air Peace. The dedication and focus of our staff remain steadfast as we continue to provide you with the best aviation experience in Nigeria and beyond,” the airline said

PT