Ivory Coast has announced that French troops will withdraw from the West African nation, further reducing the military influence of the former colonial power in the region.

In an end-of-year address, Ivory Coast's President, Alassane Ouattara, said the move was a reflection of the modernisation of the country's armed forces.

Separately, Senegal, which last month announced France would have to close its military bases on its territory, confirmed the withdrawal would be completed by the end of 2025.

Ivory Coast is home to the biggest remaining contingent of French troops in West Africa.

There are some 600 French military personnel in the country with 350 in Senegal.

"We have decided in a concerted manner to withdraw French forces from the Ivory Coast," President Ouattara said.

He added that the military infantry battalion of Port Bouét that is run by the French army would be handed over to Ivorian troops.

France, whose colonial rule in West Africa ended in the 1960s, has already pulled its soldiers out of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger following military coups in those countries and growing anti-French sentiment.

The government of Chad - a key Western ally in the fight against Islamic militants in the region - abruptly ended its defence co-operation pact with France in November.

Senegalese President Bassirou Dioumaye Faye said: "I have instructed the minister for the armed forces to propose a new doctrine for co-operation in defence and security, involving, among other consequences, the end of all foreign military presences in Senegal from 2025."

Faye was elected in March on a promise to deliver sovereignty and end dependence on foreign countries.

France will retain a small presence in Gabon.

Military leaders of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso have moved closer to Russia since kicking out French troops from their countries.

Russia then deployed mercenaries across the Sahel to help them fight off jihadist insurgents.

There are indications that France has now got fewer than 2,000 troops in Djibouti and Gabon.

Political watchers believe that France has been making efforts to revive its waning political and military influence in Africa.

The former political power now appears to be devising a new military strategy of downscaling military ties - a measure that would sharply reduce its permanent troop presence on the continent.

For more than three decades after its independence from France, Ivory Coast (also known by its French name, Côte d'Ivoire) was known for its religious and ethnic harmony, as well as its well-developed economy.

The Western African country was hailed as a model of stability. But an armed rebellion in 2002 split the nation in two. Peace deals alternated with renewed violence as the country slowly edged its way towards a political resolution of the conflict.

Despite the instability, Ivory Coast is the world's largest exporter of cocoa beans, and its citizens enjoy a relatively high level of income compared with other countries in the region.

BBC

Yemen will continue to defend itself, say Houthis after US strikes

Yemen's Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam said that the country would continue to defend itself after several U.S. strikes targeted facilities in the capital Sanaa on Tuesday.

The U.S. military said that it carried out strikes against Houthi targets in Sanaa and coastal locations in Yemen on Monday and Tuesday.

"On Dec. 30 and 31, U.S. Navy ships and aircraft targeted a Houthi command and control facility and advanced conventional weapon (ACW) production and storage facilities that included missiles and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV)," the U.S. military's Central Command said in a post on X.

The Iran-backed militant group in Yemen has been attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea for more than a year to try to enforce a naval blockade on Israel, saying they are acting in solidarity with Palestinians in Israel's year-long war in Gaza.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine hits Russian oil depot in Smolensk region

The Ukrainian military said on Tuesday its forces had hit a Russian oil depot in the western Smolensk region, setting fire to tanks storing oil products.

Ukraine's general staff said on the Telegram app that the depot was used for military purposes. It did not specify the weapon used for the strike but said it was carried out in cooperation with drone forces.

Smolensk region governor Vasily Anokhin said that the attack caused a fuel spill and fire.

According to his statement on Telegram, 10 Ukrainian drones were shot down by Russian air defences but the wreckage of one of them fell on the oil facility.

Ukraine has staged numerous attacks on Russian oil storage facilities and refineries.

According to the general staff, there were powerful explosions and thick smoke after the attack on the Smolensk depot.

Anokhin did not provide additional details but said the situation was "under control".

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine ‘has ceased to exist’ – ex-commander

The Ukrainian state has essentially ceased to exist, is plagued by endemic institutional failure and corruption, with Kiev's troops continuing to hold on by sheer will alone, a former commander has argued. He also warned that Ukraine’s defenses could collapse, allowing Russia to march all the way to the Dnieper River.

In an interview with Novyni Live on Monday, Vladimir Shylov, former commander of the 3rd Company in the 134th Separate Territorial Defense Battalion, lashed out at Ukraine’s political leadership, stating that the country has “ceased to exist” as a functional state due to widespread graft and mismanagement.

Shylov expressed concern that these woes could allow Russian forces to increase their gains, warning that they may be able to overrun frontline positions in Donbass and reach as far as the Dnieper River. The advances could be facilitated by internal chaos, he added, stating “In our country, everything is a mess...the front is holding only thanks to the Ukrainian people.”

Ukrainian leaders have transformed the nation into a “concentration camp,” Shylov claimed, highlighting systemic failures across all branches of government, including the legislative, executive, and judicial sectors. 

Shylov also specifically criticized the country’s leader, Vladimir Zelensky, for what he described as a blatant neglect of his defense responsibilities, alleging that his government had ignored Western warnings of a Russian offensive prior to the special military operation, resulting in the inadequate preparation of Kiev’s forces.

The ex-commander went on to comment on Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region, portraying it as a political ploy without any real strategic military value. He argued that the Ukrainian offensive had turned out to be a symbolic gesture which does not compensate for the substantial territorial losses Ukraine has suffered, particularly in Donbass.

Over the past several months, Russia has made significant gains in Donbass and elsewhere, with President Vladimir Putin noting that regular advances now amount to kilometers rather than hundreds of meters.

Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov said earlier this month that Ukraine had lost one million service members since February 2022, with more than half of that number in 2024 alone, adding that Moscow’s forces are in full control of the strategic initiative.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian battlefield commanders continue to complain of a critical shortage of manpower, despite Kiev implementing stricter mobilization rules and lowering the draft age from 27 to 25 this spring.

Reuters/RT

It is something of a tradition every December to take stock of the year that is ending and consider what might lie ahead. This is true on a personal level: in my family, we tend to do this around the dinner table. But it is also true more broadly, with the time of year inviting an examination of the intersection of economics, national politics, and global geopolitics.

You would be forgiven if, as a starting point, you expected these three areas to be in alignment. After all, they are deeply interconnected, which suggests self-reinforcing dynamics. But 2024 brought some unusual dispersion in this relationship that actually widened, rather than narrowed, over the course of the year.

Begin with geopolitics. In 2024, Russia secured a greater advantage in the Ukraine war than the consensus forecasts of a year ago anticipated. Similarly, the human suffering and physical destruction resulting from the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza exceeded most observers’ already-grim expectations, and spread to other countries, such as Lebanon. The apparent impunity of the strong, together with the absence of effective means of preventing dire humanitarian crises, has deepened the sense for many that the global order is fundamentally imbalanced, and lacks any enforceable guardrails.

As for domestic politics, upheaval has been the order of the day in many countries. Governments have collapsed in both France and Germany – Europe’s largest economies – leaving the European Union without political leadership. And following Donald Trump’s victory in last month’s presidential election, the United States is preparing for a political transition that is likely to bring a significant increase in the political influence of a new “counter-elite.”

Meanwhile, an “axis of convenience” – comprising China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia – is seeking to challenge the Western-dominated international order. Other recent developments – from the now-impeached South Korean president’s abrupt declaration of martial law (which was quickly reversed) to the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria – have reinforced the impression that we are living at a time of exceptional geopolitical and political volatility.

The last year also brought some worrisome macroeconomic developments. Europe’s malaise has deepened, as countries grapple with low growth and large budget deficits. And China has failed to respond credibly to the clear and present danger of “Japanification,” with unfavorable demographics, a debt overhang, and a prolonged property-market downturn undermining growth, economic efficiency, and consumer confidence.

And yet, stock markets have remained relatively stable and delivered high returns, including almost 60 record-high closes for the S&P index. The US economy’s exceptional performance is a major reason why. Far from weakening, as most economists expected, the US pulled even further ahead. Given the amount of foreign capital the US is attracting, and the scale of its investment in the future drivers of productivity, competitiveness, and growth, it is likely to continue outperforming other major economies in 2025.

One consequence of this success is that the US Federal Reserve did not deliver the soothing 1.75-2-percentage-point interest-rate cuts that markets were pricing in a year ago. This trend, too, is set to continue: at December’s policy meeting, the Fed signaled fewer cuts in 2025, and a higher terminal (long-run) rate.

But political and geopolitical upheaval – and the limited prospects for significant improvements – does pose a risk to the endurance of US economic exceptionalism. Even if the US continues outperforming its peers, as expected, the range of possible outcomes, in terms of both growth and inflation, has widened. In fact, global economic and policy outcomes as a whole are now subject to a larger possibility set, both because the downside risks have grown and because upside innovations – such as in artificial intelligence, life sciences, food security, health care, and defense – could transform sectors and accelerate productivity gains.

Absent a major policy reset, my baseline scenario for the US includes a somewhat lower immediate growth rate, even as the economy outperforms its peers, and sticky inflation. This will present the Fed with a choice: accept above-target inflation or attempt to bring it down and risk tipping the economy into recession.

Globally, economic fragmentation will continue, pushing some countries to diversify their reserves further away from the US dollar and explore alternatives to Western payment systems. Yields on US ten-year government bonds – a global benchmark – will edge higher, trading mostly in the 4.75-5% range. As for financial markets, they might find it more challenging to maintain their status as the “good house” in a challenging geo-economic neighborhood.

This is how things appear now. But, beyond recognizing the wider dispersion of possible economic outcomes in 2025, it will be crucial regularly to test whichever baseline one embraces against actual developments.

Project Syndicate

Gill Malinsky

After nearly 18 years at Google, Jenny Wood now dedicates her time to helping people grow their careers. She does this through her weekly newsletter, Big Small Things, and she hopes to do this with her forthcoming book, “Wild Courage,” due out in March 2025.     

“I made so many mistakes as I rose from entry-level to exec,” she says, adding that “these mistakes included the actions I didn’t take (which led to the most regret) and the actions I did take (some of which were cringe-worthy).”

When it comes to setting yourself up for success in 2025, Wood has a couple of tips.

Figure out your ‘Baltics’ and your ‘Boardwalks’

First, figure out what tasks and projects will actually make an impact. Wood compares this to low-value and high-value properties in Monopoly — you have to determine “what are your Baltics in 2025 and what are your Boardwalks,” she says.

“Agreeing to take notes for every team meeting or showing up early to help decorate for an office party” are Baltics, says Wood. They’re not contributing to your professional progress. On the other hand, “raising your hand to increase a given metric by 20% or volunteering to help drive a reorg and present it to leadership,” are Boardwalks. They will help move you and your company forward.

Ask your boss about their top priorities or read an exec’s newsletter outlining those for the company, then write two to three personal Boardwalk goals for the first quarter of 2025. Every quarter write another two to three.

Ask your boss for what you want

Second, Wood recommends asking for what you want to do next year.

Say your company’s working on two initiatives, a vanilla ice cream and a chocolate ice cream. You get put on the chocolate ice cream team even though you hoped to be put on vanilla. Especially if you’re early in your career, it can seem counterintuitive to say you want to be on that other team. But don’t be afraid to push back, she says.

Say something to your boss like, “I’d really enjoy the opportunity to work on vanilla ice cream,” she says.
“I like the stakeholders on that project. It’s a different product than I’ve been used to. I’ve been working on chocolate ice cream for the last three years. I’d like some variety to learn new skills.”

That push back says you’re a risk taker, she says, “and that’s the kind of stuff that gets you promoted.”

Before the end of this year, figure out what you want to focus on in 2025 then invite your boss to a meeting where you can discuss these objectives.

CNBC

Nigeria's Broad Money Supply (M2) increased significantly by 51 percent year-on-year to N108.96 trillion in November 2024, while currency in circulation reached an all-time high of N4.8 trillion, according to the latest Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Money and Credit Statistics.

The substantial increase in M2, which represents cash, demand deposits, savings deposits, and other monetary instruments, reflects the government's high domestic borrowing. The data showed that credit to the government surged by 54 percent year-on-year to N39.6 trillion in November 2024 from N25.7 trillion in November 2023, while credit to the private sector rose by 27 percent to N75.96 trillion.

Currency outside banks, representing about 96 percent of currency in circulation, grew significantly to N4.65 trillion in November 2024, marking a 50.9 percent increase from N3.08 trillion in the previous year. This trend indicates an increasing preference for cash holdings outside the banking system, despite widespread reports of cash shortages that have led banks to limit daily ATM withdrawals to N20,000 per account.

The currency in circulation has shown steady growth throughout 2024, adding over one trillion naira since January when it was N3.65 trillion. The monthly progression saw consistent increases, from N3.69 trillion in February to N4.04 trillion in June, before reaching the current record level of N4.8 trillion in November.

Other monetary indicators also showed significant growth, with demand deposits increasing by 34.4 percent year-on-year to N31.6 trillion, and narrow money (M1) growing by 38 percent to N36.3 trillion. Quasi-money, including savings and time deposits, rose marginally by 1.96 percent to N72.7 trillion from N71.3 trillion in November 2023.

The overall expansion in net domestic credit reached 91 percent year-on-year, totaling N115.6 trillion in November 2024, up from N60.5 trillion in 2023, highlighting the significant increase in both government and private sector borrowing throughout the year.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has announced the partial resumption of operations at the Warri Refining and Petrochemical Company (WRPC), marking a milestone in Nigeria’s efforts to revive its local refining capacity. The refinery, which had been dormant since 2015 due to prolonged repairs, began refining crude oil last Saturday at its Area 1 plant.

This development follows the recent commencement of operations at the Port Harcourt Refinery’s 60,000-barrel-per-day facility, signaling progress in the country’s push to reduce dependence on imported petroleum products.

NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, disclosed the resumption during a tour of the Warri Refinery on Monday. Accompanied by the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, Farouk Ahmed, Kyari addressed the tour group, emphasizing that the resumption of operations is evidence of ongoing progress.

“We are taking you through our plant. This plant is running,” Kyari said in a video shared by Channels TV. “Although it is not 100 percent complete, operations have commenced. Many people think these things are not real or possible in this country. We want you to see that this is real.”

The Warri Refinery’s restart underscores the federal government’s commitment to reviving the country’s refining sector after years of operational setbacks and costly fuel imports. While repairs are still ongoing, the resumption of partial operations represents a significant step toward achieving functional and self-sufficient refining infrastructure in Nigeria.

Israel, at UN, warns Houthis risk sharing same fate as Hamas, Hezbollah

Israel's ambassador to the United Nations issued on Monday what he called a final warning to Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militants to halt their missile attacks on Israel, saying they risked the same "miserable fate" as Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria's Bashar al-Assad if they persisted.

The ambassador, Danny Danon, also warned Tehran that Israel has the ability to strike any target in the Middle East, including in Iran. He added that Israel would not tolerate attacks by Iranian proxies.

But hours later the Israeli military announced that it had intercepted a missile fired from Yemen, prompting sirens to sound across the country, and a top Houthi leader said the group would not end its attacks on Israel.

"The pounding of the entity (Israel) continues and the support to Gaza continues," Mohamed Ali al-Houthi, the head of the Houthis' supreme revolutionary committee, said in a post on X after the Israeli military announced the missile interception.

The Houthis repeatedly have fired drones and missiles towards Israel in what they describe as acts of solidarity with Palestinians under Israeli fire in Gaza.

Danon, in addressing the U.N. Security Council, said that Israel would not tolerate further Houthi attacks.

"To the Houthis, perhaps you have not been paying attention to what has happened to the Middle East over the past year," he said.

"Well, allow me to remind you what has happened to Hamas, to Hezbollah, to Assad, to all those who have attempted to destroy us. Let this be your final warning. This is not a threat. It is a promise. You will share the same miserable fate," Danon said.

Before the meeting, Danon told reporters: "Israel will defend its people. If 2,000 kilometers is not enough to separate our children from the terror, let me assure you, it will not be enough to protect their terror from our strengths."

Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned the Houthis that Israel was "just getting started" following Israeli strikes on multiple Houthi-linked targets in Yemen, including Sanaa airport, ports on the country's west coast and two power plants.

The head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said he was about to board a plane at the airport when it came under attack by Israel. A crew member on the plane was injured, he said.

Israel's elimination of the top leaders of the Palestinian Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah and the destruction of their military structure along with Assad's collapse represents a succession of monumental wins for Netanyahu.

Briefing the Security Council meeting, Assistant U.N. Secretary General for the Middle East Khaled Khiari reiterated grave concern about the escalation in violence, calling on the Houthis to halt attacks on Israel and for international and humanitarian law to be respected.

"Further military escalation could jeopardize regional stability with adverse political, security, economic and humanitarian repercussions," Khiari said.

"Millions in Yemen, Israel and throughout the region, would continue to bear the brunt of escalation with no end."

Russia's ambassador to the U.N., Vassily Nebenzia, while condemning Houthi missile attacks on Israel, also criticized Israel's retaliatory strikes on Yemen, as well those by what he called the "Anglo-Saxon coalition" of U.S. and British warships in the Red Sea, saying they were "clearly not proportional."

Reuters

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

No grounds for ending Ukraine conflict – Kremlin

Russian authorities do not believe that the fighting between Moscow and Kiev can be stopped at the moment, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said.

Peskov was asked by RIA-Novosti on Monday if there are currently any prerequisites for ending the Ukraine conflict.

The spokesman gave a short but conclusive reply: “No.”

He had reiterated last week that Russia “remains open to talks” to end the hostilities. “However, since there has been no progress in terms of Ukraine’s readiness for negotiations, we are continuing with our [military] operation,”Peskov stressed.

According to the spokesman, the dynamics on the battlefield “are self-evident: we are on the advance.”

In the fall of 2022, Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky signed a decree banning the Kiev government from any talks with Moscow. The legislation remains in force.

Throughout the conflict, Zelensky and his Western backers have been discussing his so-called ‘peace formula,’ which demanded that Russia withdraw from Crimea and the other territories claimed by Ukraine – the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, and the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, which officially became part of the Russian state as a result of referendums in late 2022. It also called for Moscow to pay reparations and for the formation of a war crimes tribunal.

Russian authorities have rejected this proposal as unacceptable, “detached from reality” and a sign of Kiev’s unwillingness to seek a diplomatic solution to the crisis.

However, the Ukrainian leader has recently abandoned his talk of “victory,” claiming instead that he wants a “just peace,” coupled with security guarantees from the West in the form of NATO membership, with the status of the new Russian regions undetermined.

Last week, the Washington Post reported, citing a senior member of Zelensky’s government, that officials in Kiev are “starting to believe” that the conflict with Russia will be resolved in 2025. The shift in attitude is a direct result of US President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to put a swift end to the fighting once he returns to office, according to the paper.

During his end-of-year press conference earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow is open to negotiations with Kiev without any preconditions other than those already agreed in Istanbul in 2022.

These terms involve a neutral, non-aligned status for Ukraine – prohibiting it from joining NATO – as well as restrictions on the deployment of foreign weaponry in the country. Putin also stressed that any talks must take into account the realities on the ground that have emerged since 2022.

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Scores of Ukrainian and Russian POWs head back home after swap

Ukraine and Russia carried out a new exchange of prisoners of war on Monday, with the two sides bringing home a combined total of more than 300 former captives.

Kyiv brought home 189 former captives, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russia's Defence Ministry said, while the Russian ministry said 150 Russian servicemen were returning home.

The Russian ministry said the captives had been released in Belarus, Moscow's close ally in the 34-month-old war with Ukraine, and would be transferred to Russia.

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Reuters Television footage in Ukraine showed waiting spouses and some servicemen, many wrapped in blue and yellow national flags, weeping openly as they were reunited well after dark outside a building.

A child's incredulous voice resounded over a mobile telephone: "Dad, is that you?"

"My son is 5 years old now, the last time I saw him he was 2 years old," said Serhii, who was captured by Russian forces at the Azovstal steel mill in the southern port Mariupol, which withstood a siege for nearly three months in 2022.

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"That's why my son probably didn't recognise me. I used to have a beard and hair. I lost 20 kg (44 pounds)."

For some former captives the return to freedom involved adjustment.

"Even now I'm holding my hands behind my back, it has become a habit of mine," said Roman Borshch, 29. "Now I have to get used to being a free person again."

Video posted by the Russian Defence Ministry showed smiling servicemen on a bus, some calling their families.

"We'll soon be home. How are the children? How is our boy?" said one man.

"I am overwhelmed by emotion," said another. "I still can't quite believe that this has happened, that I am back home, that the ministry made such efforts, that we are remembered and valued."

Zelenskiy thanked United Arab Emirates authorities and other partners for facilitating the swap. The United Arab Emirates acknowledged it helped arrange the exchange.

"The return of our people from Russian captivity is always very good news for each of us. And today is one of such days: our team managed to bring 189 Ukrainians home," Zelenskiy said on Telegram.

There was no immediate explanation for why more Ukrainians than Russians were listed as released; the freed Ukrainians included civilians who had been in Russian captivity.

Zelenskiy said the returning Ukrainians included soldiers, sergeants and officers from frontline areas and two civilians who had been captured in Mariupol.

BESIEGED STEEL MILL

Denys Prokopenko, commander of the 12th Special Forces "Azov" Brigade that defended the Azovstal mill, said 11 of his men were among those returning. Prokopenko was brought home in an earlier swap.

The Ukrainian body overseeing prisoner swaps said it was the 59th exchange between the two sides since Russia's February 2022 invasion of its smaller neighbour. The swap brought to 3,956 the number of Ukrainian detainees brought home.

It said those brought home this year included Ukrainian nationals serving what it described as "so-called sentences" imposed by Russian courts for various offences.

In the last swap in October, also carried out with assistance from the United Arab Emirates, Russia and Ukraine each brought home 95 detainees.

RT/Reuters

Ukraine has about a month before it runs out of artillery shells, and the US Congress cannot agree to ship more. Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is dead. The slaughter in Gaza continues with no end in sight. The Yemeni Houthis are attacking ships in the Red Sea. The North Koreans are testing intercontinental ballistic missiles. In normal times, pessimism can look like an intellectual fad. In times like these, it becomes a starker form of realism.

The post-1945 world order – written into international law, ratified by the United Nations, and kept in place by the balance of nuclear terror among major powers – is hanging by a thread. The United States is divided against itself and stretched to the limits of its capabilities. Europe is waking up to the possibility that, come November, America may no longer fulfill its collective-defense obligations under Article 5 of the NATO treaty. Faced with this new uncertainty, Europe is cranking up its defense production, and European politicians are screwing up the courage to persuade their electorates that they will need to ante up 2% of their GDP to guarantee their own safety.

The Western alliance doesn’t just face the challenge of doubling down on defense while maintaining unity across the Atlantic. It also now faces an “axis of resistance” that might be tempted to threaten Western hegemony with a simultaneous, coordinated challenge. The lynchpin of this axis is the Russia-China “no-limits” partnership. While the Chinese supply the Russians with advanced circuitry for their weapons systems, Russian President Vladimir Putin ships them cheap oil. Together they have imposed autocratic rule over most of Eurasia.

If Ukraine’s exhausted defenders are forced to concede Russian sovereignty over Crimea and the Donbas region, the Eurasian axis of dictators will have succeeded in changing a European land frontier by force. Achieving this will threaten every state on the edge of Eurasia: Taiwan, the Baltic countries, and even Poland. Both dictatorial regimes will use their vetoes on the UN Security Council to ratify conquest, effectively consigning the UN Charter to history’s dustbin.

This partnership of dictators works in tandem with a cluster of rights-abusing renegades, led by Iran and North Korea. The North Koreans provide Putin with artillery shells while plotting to invade the rest of their peninsula. The Iranians manufacture the drones that terrorize Ukrainians in their trenches. Meanwhile, Iran’s proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis – are helping Russia and China by tying down America and Israel.

Unless the US can force Israel into a long-term ceasefire, it will find itself struggling to control conflicts on three fronts (Asia, Europe, and the Middle East). Not even a country that outspends its rivals on defense by two to one can maintain a war footing simultaneously across so many theaters.

The idea that democracies around the world will join up with America and Europe against the authoritarian threat seems like an illusion. Instead of joining with the embattled democracies of the Global North, the rising democracies of the Global South – Brazil, India, and South Africa – seem unembarrassed to be aligning with regimes that rely on mass repression, the cantonment of entire populations (the Uighurs in China), and shameless murder (Navalny being only the most recent example).

To be sure, the authoritarian axis currently is united only by what it opposes: American power. It is otherwise divided by its ultimate interests. The Chinese, for example, cannot be overjoyed that the Houthis are blocking freight traffic through the Red Sea. The world’s second most powerful economy doesn’t have all that much in common with an impoverished Muslim resistance army or with theocratic Iran.

Moreover, both Russia and China remain parasitic beneficiaries of a global economy that is sustained by US alliances and deterrence. That is why they still hesitate to challenge the hegemon too directly. However, like sharks, they smell blood in the water. They have not only survived US sanctions but continued to prosper, replacing their dependence on embargoed markets with new markets in Latin America, Asia, and India. Both Russia and China have discovered that American control of the global economy is not what it once was.

This discovery of American weakness might tempt them to risk a joint military challenge. As matters stand, US diplomacy and deterrence have successfully kept the axis divided. CIA Director William Burns and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan are keeping the channels open to China. Blowback American strikes against Iran have apparently convinced the theocrats to rein in Hezbollah and the militias in Iraq – though not the Houthis, whom nobody seems able to control.

It doesn’t take strategic genius to see the opportunity China and Russia might be contemplating. If they decided to mount an overt challenge to the American order – for example, with a coordinated, simultaneous offensive against Ukraine and Taiwan – the US would struggle to rush weapons and technology into the breach.

Nuclear weapons would not necessarily deter China and Russia from risking a coordinated attempt to take Taiwan and the rest of Ukraine. All parties would pay a horrendous price, but Russia has shown what it is willing to expend in Ukraine, and both China and Russia may believe that there will never be a more opportune moment to overthrow American hegemony. If they were to combine forces, we would face the most serious challenge to the global economic and strategic order since 1945.

Nobody has any idea what the world would be like on the other side of such a confrontation. We cannot even assume, as we have always done, that America would prevail if faced with a simultaneous challenge from two formidable powers. If a pessimist is someone who imagines the worst in order to forestall it, we should all be pessimists. Keeping the authoritarian axis from becoming a full-fledged alliance should be America’s first-order priority.

Project Syndicate