Still counting its dead, Hezbollah faces long road to recover from war

With the bodies of its fighters still strewn on the battlefield, Hezbollah must bury its dead and provide succour to its supporters who bore the brunt of Israel's offensive, as the first steps on a long and costly road to recovery, four senior officials said.

Hezbollah believes the number of its fighters killed during 14 months of hostilities could reach several thousand, with the vast majority killed since Israel went on the offensive in September, three sources familiar with its operations say, citing previously unreported internal estimates.

One source said the Iran-backed group may have lost up to 4,000 people - well over 10 times the number killed in its month-long 2006 war with Israel. So far, Lebanese authorities have said some 3,800 people were killed in the current hostilities, without distinguishing fighters from civilians.

Hezbollah emerges shaken from top to bottom, its leadership still reeling from the killing of its former leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and its supporters made homeless en masse by the carpet bombing of Beirut's southern suburbs and the destruction of entire villages in the south.

With a ceasefire taking hold on Wednesday, Hezbollah's agenda includes working to re-establish its organisational structure fully, probing security breaches that helped Israel land so many painful blows, and a full review of the last year including its mistakes in underestimating Israel's technological capabilities, three other sources familiar with the group's thinking said.

For this story Reuters spoke to a dozen people who together provided details of some of the challenges facing Hezbollah as it seeks to pick itself up after the war. Most asked not to be named to speak about sensitive matters.

Hassan Fadallah, a senior Hezbollah politician, told Reuters the priority will be "the people."

"To shelter them, to remove the rubble, to bid farewell to the martyrs and, in the next phase, to rebuild," he said.

Israel's campaign has focused largely on Hezbollah's Shi'ite Muslim heartlands, where its supporters were badly hit. They include people still nursing casualties from Israel's attack on its mobile communications devices in September.

"I have a brother who was martyred, a brother-in-law who was wounded in the pager attacks, and my neighbours and relatives are all either martyrs, wounded or missing," said Hawraa, a woman from south Lebanon with family members who fight for Hezbollah.

"We want to collect our martyrs and bury them ... we want to rebuild our homes," said Hawraa, who stayed in her village until she was forced to flee by the Israeli assault in September. She declined to use her full name, citing safety fears.

The Israeli offensive displaced more than 1 million people, the bulk of them from areas where Hezbollah has sway.

A senior Lebanese official familiar with Hezbollah thinking said the group's focus would be squarely on securing their return and rebuilding their homes: "Hezbollah is like a wounded man. Does a wounded man get up and fight? A wounded man needs to tend to his wounds."

The official expected Hezbollah to carry out a wide-ranging policy review after the war, dealing with all major issues: Israel, its weapons, and the internal politics of Lebanon, where its weapons have long been a point of conflict.

Iran, which established Hezbollah in 1982, has promised to help with reconstruction. The costs are immense: The World Bank estimates $2.8 billion in damage to housing alone in Lebanon, with 99,000 homes partially or fully destroyed.

The senior Lebanese official said Tehran has a variety of ways to get funds to Hezbollah, without giving details.

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a close Hezbollah ally, is urging wealthy Lebanese Shi'ites in the diaspora to send funds to help the displaced, two Lebanese officials said.

The officials also expected significant donations to come from Shi'ite religious foundations across the region.

Hezbollah did not immediately respond to a detailed request for comment for this story. Iran's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

'THE RESISTANCE' WILL CONTINUE

Hezbollah has indicated it intends to keep its arms, dashing hopes of Lebanese adversaries who predicted the pressures generated by the war would finally lead it to hand them to the state. Hezbollah officials have said the resistance - widely understood to mean its armed status - will continue.

Hezbollah opened fire in support of Palestinian ally Hamas on Oct. 8, 2023. Israel went on the offensive against the group in September, declaring the aim of securing the return home of 60,000 people evacuated from homes in the north.

Despite the resulting devastation, Hezbollah's Fadlallah said the resistance put up by its fighters in south Lebanon and the group's intensified rocket salvoes towards the end of the conflict showed Israel had failed.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says its campaign has set back Hezbollah decades, eliminated its top leaders, destroyed most of its rockets, neutralised thousands of fighters, and obliterated its infrastructure near the border.

A senior U.S. official said Hezbollah was "extremely weak" at this moment, both militarily and politically. A Western diplomat echoed that assessment, saying Israel had the upper hand and had almost dictated the terms of its withdrawal.

The ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon require Hezbollah to have no military presence in an area between the Israeli border and the Litani River, which meets the Mediterranean Sea some 30 km (20 miles) from the frontier.

Hezbollah, which approved the deal, has not declared how it intends to help implement those terms, including whether it actively hands its arms to Lebanese troops who are deploying into the south, or leaves the weapons for soldiers to find.

Israel complains Hezbollah, which is deeply rooted in south Lebanon, never implemented the same terms when they were agreed to end a previous war in 2006 war. Israel says the group was preparing for a large-scale assault into northern Israel, pointing to its military build-up at the frontier.

Andreas Krieg of King's College in London said Hezbollah had retained considerable capability.

The performance of its "core infantry fighters in southern Lebanon and rocket attacks deep into Israeli territory in recent days showed the group was still very, very capable," he said.

"But Hezbollah will be very much bogged down in the effort of rebuilding the infrastructure and also, most importantly, securing the funds to do so,” he said.

'REPAYING THE DEBT'

Hezbollah has been handing out cash to people affected by the hostilities since they began, paying $200 a month to civilians who stayed in frontline villages, and offering more as people were forced to flee the areas, according to recipients.

Since the start of the escalation in September, Hezbollah has been paying around $300 a month to help displaced families.

The group has made no secret of the military and financial support it gets from Iran, which shipped huge sums of cash to in 2006 to aid the homeless and help rebuild.

Hezbollah supporters say more will be on the way. One, citing conversations with a local Hezbollah official, said the group would cover a year of rent for the homeless in addition to furniture costs.

Addressing the Lebanese people in an October sermon, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said "the destruction will be replaced... repaying the debt to the wounded, bleeding Lebanon is our duty...".

The World Bank, in a preliminary estimate, put the cost in damage and losses to Lebanon at $8.5 billion, a bill that cannot be footed by the government, still suffering the consequences of a catastrophic financial collapse five years ago.

Gulf states Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia helped pay the $5 billion reconstruction bill in 2006, the last time Hezbollah and Israel went to war. But there has been no sign that these Sunni-led Arab states are ready to do so again.

Hezbollah conducted a lot of reconstruction work after the 2006 war, financed by Iran and using its construction wing. The project was directed by Sayyed Hashem Safieddine, a Hezbollah leader killed by Israel 11 days after Nasrallah, in a sign of the bigger challenges it will face this time round.

"For Hezbollah the priority is to guarantee the loyalty of the Shi’ite community. The destruction has been enormous and it will impact the organization," said Mohanand Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Nuclear attack unlikely despite Putin's warnings, US intelligence says

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to fire American weapons deeper into Russia has not increased the risk of a nuclear attack, which is unlikely, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's increasingly bellicose statements, five sources familiar with U.S. intelligence told Reuters.

But Russia is likely to expand a campaign of sabotage against European targets to increase pressure on the West over its support for Kyiv, said two senior officials, a lawmaker and two congressional aides briefed on the matter.

A series of intelligence assessments over the past seven months have concluded nuclear escalation was unlikely to result from a decision to loosen restrictions on Ukraine's use of U.S. weapons. That view has not changed following President Joe Biden's changed U.S. stance this month on weapons, said the sources, who were granted anonymity to speak freely about sensitive intelligence.

"The assessments were consistent: The ATACMs weren’t going to change Russia’s nuclear calculus," said one congressional aide briefed on the intelligence, referring to American missiles with a range of up to 190 miles (306 km).

Russia's launch of a new ballistic missile last week, which analysts say was meant as a warning to Washington and its European allies, has not changed that conclusion.

One of the five U.S. officials said while Washington assessed that Russia would not seek to escalate with its nuclear forces, it would try to match what it views as U.S. escalation. The official said fielding the new missile was part of that effort.

U.S. officials said the intelligence has helped guide an often divisive debate over recent months inside Biden's administration about whether Washington loosening restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American weapons was worth the risk of angering Putin.

Officials initially resisted such a move, citing escalation concerns and uncertainty over how Putin would respond. Some of those officials, including in the White House, the Pentagon and the State Department, feared lethal retaliation on U.S. military and diplomatic personnel and attacks on NATO allies.

Others were specifically worried about nuclear escalation. Biden changed his mind because of North Korea's entry into the war before the U.S. presidential election, U.S. officials have said.

Some officials now believe the escalation concerns, including the nuclear fears, were overblown but stress that the overall situation in Ukraineremains dangerous and that nuclear escalation is not out of the question. Russia's ability to find other covert ways of retaliating against the West remains a worry.

“Russia's hybrid response is a concern,” said Angela Stent, director of Eurasian, Russian and East European studies at Georgetown University, referring to Russia’s sabotage in Europe.

“The chance of escalation was never not there. The concern now is greater.”

The White House and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.

The Kremlin did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the intelligence assessments.

REACTION AND COUNTER-REACTION

Since August, when Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region, Moscow and Kyiv have been locked in a cycle of escalating moves and counter-moves.

Russia has enlisted help from North Korea, which sent between 11,000 and 12,000 soldiers to help its war effort, according to the United States.

The same day as Ukraine's first strike under the relaxed U.S. policy, Russia changed its nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike.

Fear of nuclear escalation has been a factor in U.S. officials' thinking since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. CIA Director William Burns has said there was a real risk in late 2022 that Russia could use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

Even so, the White House moved forward with Ukraine aid, sending billions of dollars' worth of military assistance.

The concerns faded for some officials as Putin did not act on his threats but remained central to how many in the administration weighed decisions on how the U.S. should support Kyiv.

In May, the White House allowed Ukraine to use American missiles in limited circumstances to strike across the border but not deep inside Russia, citing risk of escalation by Moscow, marginal tactical benefit and a limited supply of ATACMs.

One of the intelligence assessments from early summer, drawn up at the White House's request, explained that strikes across the border from the Ukrainian city Kharkiv would have limited impact because 90% of Russian aircraft had been moved back from the border – out of distance of the short-range missiles.

But the assessments also noted while Putin often threatens to use nuclear weapons, Moscow is unlikely to take such a step in part because they do not provide a clear military benefit. Intelligence officials described the nuclear option as a last resort for Russia and that Putin would resort to other means of reprisal first, noting Russia was already engaged in sabotage and cyberattacks.

Still, some officials inside the White House and Pentagon argued that allowing Kyiv to use the missiles to strike inside Russia would put Kyiv, the U.S. and American allies in unprecedented danger, provoking Putin to retaliate either through nuclear force or other deadly tactics outside the war zone.

Pentagon officials worried about attacks on U.S. military bases.

THE NORTH KOREA FACTOR

The introduction of North Korean troops convinced the administration, particularly a group of officials at the White House and the Pentagon concerned about escalation, to allow the long-range strikes, said a senior U.S. official.

Russia was making battlefield gains and the North Korean troops were viewed internally as escalation by Moscow necessitating a response from Washington, the official said.

Given the early intelligence assessments downplaying the risk of nuclear escalation, the nuclear fears were overstated and the decision to allow wider use of ATACMs came too late, said a senior U.S. official and a lawmaker, citing Russia's recent advances.

Intelligence sources say Moscow's most robust and successful reprisal operations are likely to come through sabotage. Russian intelligence services have launched a massive international effort in Europe to intimidate countries who support Ukraine, one European diplomat said.

A U.S. official added Moscow was actively looking to advance its "gray-zone" warfare against the West and that Russia has an extensive network of agents and it exploring options for using them.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Ukraine has lost almost 500,000 troops – Economist

Up to half a million Ukrainian troops have been killed or wounded in the ongoing conflict with Russia, according to new estimates provided by The Economist, which cited leaked intelligence reports, official statements and open sources.

In an article published on Tuesday, the outlet noted that it is difficult to calculate Kiev’s actual losses, given that Ukrainian officials and their allies are “reluctant to provide estimates.”

Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky claimed in February that only 31,000 troops had been killed since the conflict with Russia escalated in 2022. He refused to reveal how many had been wounded, arguing it would let Moscow know “how many people are left on the battlefield.”

However, The Economist noted that according to US officials, Kiev’s total casualty figure currently stands at more than 308,000 soldiers. According to the outlet’s analysis of other sources, the figure could be closer to half a million troops, of which “at least” 60,000-100,000 are believed to have been killed.

“Perhaps a further 400,000 are too injured to fight on,”the magazine wrote.

The Economist also cited the UALosses website, which tracks and catalogues the names and ages of the dead. According to its data, Ukraine has lost at least 60,435 troops, or more than 0.5% of its pre-war population of men of fighting age.

While the data from UALosses is not comprehensive and not all soldiers’ ages are known, The Economist suggested that the actual number of those killed in the fighting is higher and the amount of servicemen who are too injured to fight is even greater.

“Assuming that six to eight Ukrainian soldiers are severely wounded for every one who is killed in battle, nearly one in 20 men of fighting age is dead or too wounded to fight on,” the outlet estimated.

Earlier this year, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Ukraine’s military losses since February 2022 had reached almost 500,000, without specifying how many had been killed or injured.

According to the latest information from the ministry, Kiev has also lost over 35,000 servicemen since August in its incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region.

In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that his country’s personnel losses in the conflict were a fraction of those on the Ukrainian side, suggesting that the ratio of casualties was approximately one to five.

Reuters/RT

Education is at a pivotal crossroads. As generative AI platforms like ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, and NotebookLM continue to advance, their potential impact on education is undeniable. Expertsforecast that by 2025 universities are projected to invest up to $20 million over the next five years in AI-driven curricula, a clear sign of the growing commitment to integrating AI into higher education. They also predict that AI could boost graduation rates by 43%.

AI tools are not just supplementary; they are transformative, capable of generating information, providing feedback, and suggesting creative solutions, among countless other functions. The question for educators is no longer whether to use AI but how to redefine teaching and learning in an AI-driven era.

The recent conference of the International Association of University Presidents (IAUP) focused on educational innovation through AI, while keeping education human-centered. Presenters emphasized balancing AI's role in enhancing learning without diminishing intellectual effort. However, one conference reportfailed to report the need to advocate for a true educational paradigm shift—one where human-AI partnerships drive deeper learning, innovation, and holistic development, as discussed below.

The Role of AI In Modern Pedagogy: Harnessing The Power of Technology

Our pedagogy must evolve beyond traditional methods to a model that fully integrates AI's strengths while protecting the distinctly human skills that AI cannot replace—critical thinking, ethical reasoning, and creativity, as highlighted in the AACSB report Building Future-Ready Business Schools with Generative AI. AI should augment human intelligence, not replace it. Our role as educators is to redesign curricula that leverage AI while cultivating the irreplaceable human qualities of judgment, empathy, and collaboration, ensuring that students remain the leaders and innovators in an increasingly AI-driven world.

For instance, AI can help with business strategy formulation, financial analysis, marketing campaign development, and supply chain analytics. However, the human ability to interpret, critique, and adapt AI's insights to real-world scenarios ultimately drives value. The future of education lies not in competing with AI, but in learning to partner with it effectively.

Emphasizing Critical Thinking And Problem-Solving: The Human Edge

To prepare students for an AI-driven future, we must foster their ability to evaluate AI-generated outputs. While AI can suggest strategies, only humans can assess their feasibility, relevance, and ethical implications. Education must shift from rote learning to active, critical engagement, encouraging students to question and refine AI suggestions rather than accepting them at face value but shaping them through thoughtful questioning.

In business strategy courses, for example, students might use AI to generate market entry strategies. AI can provide data-driven options, but real learning occurs when students refine these suggestions, asking questions that align with long-term goals or account for cultural and regulatory nuances. Such an iterative process underscores the critical role of human judgment: AI provides ideas, but students adapt and enrich them for complex contexts.

Ethan Mollick, Associate Professor at Wharton, advocates using AI in assignments to boost creativity and problem-solving skills. By incorporating tools like ChatGPT into projects, students see how AI aids ideation, prototyping, and productivity—practical skills they can carry into their careers.

Project-Based And Inquiry-Based Learning: Real-World Application

Integrating AI through project-based and inquiry-based learning is essential in the generative AI era. AI can assist with data analysis and information gathering, but humans must interpret and apply these insights meaningfully.

In a digital transformation class, for example, students act as consultants for a real business, using AI tools like Tableau to derive insights. AI might generate reports on market trends, but students must contextualize these insights—considering company culture, customer behavior, and financial constraints to craft a coherent strategy. This hands-on approach, where AI manages data while students focus on strategic decisions, deepens understanding of technology and its limitations.

Partnering with companies for real-world projects further bridges theory and practice. Students tackle actual business challenges, gain exposure to how AI tools are used beyond academia, and develop practical, applicable skills.

Building Collaboration And Communication Skills: Beyond Automation

While AI can generate content, it lacks empathy, brand voice, and the ability to engage consumers meaningfully. Developing strong collaboration and communication skills are crucial in an AI-enhanced world.

In marketing classes, students might use AI to draft ad copy or social media posts. AI-generated content can be a starting point, but students must refine it to reflect brand identity and resonate with audiences. Adjusting tone, language, and messaging shows how human input adds value beyond AI's capabilities. Through careful prompt engineering, students work in teams to incorporate cultural, emotional, and contextual nuances, making AI output more effective.

Cross-disciplinary projects also enhance teamwork and communication. For example, supply chain students can collaborate with finance students to refine AI-generated content related to operational decisions, blending operational insights with financial analysis. This approach provides a holistic view of business challenges, underscoring the importance of collaboration in optimizing business outcomes.

Teaching Ethics And AI Literacy: Responsible Use Of Technology

With AI's growing influence, a strong foundation in ethical literacy is crucial. AI presents risks like bias, privacy concerns, and lack of transparency. Teaching students to use AI responsibly is essential.

In business ethics courses, students might analyze AI in hiring decisions. AI can screen resumes, but students must recognize potential biases. Using frameworks like "fairness, accountability, transparency, and ethics (FATE)," they can assess AI systems and create ethical guidelines. Ensuring AI fairness and accountability is ultimately a human responsibility.

Real-world examples of AI bias in hiring, lending, or healthcare help students grasp the consequences of biased algorithms. Practical exercises where students audit AI tools for bias, by creating test cases representing different demographic groups and running AI models against them, develop their skills in identifying and mitigating ethical pitfalls. Such activities empower students to propose actionable solutions for ethical AI use.

Integrating AI-Enhanced Creativity: Fueling Human Innovation

AI can assist in idea generation, but true creativity requires human refinement, emotional intelligence, and innovation. As students have noted, using AI extends their thinking beyond their current abilities, illustrating AI's role as an enhancer, not a replacement, or another learning tool.

In entrepreneurship classes, AI might suggest business models or identify market gaps, but students must infuse these ideas with creativity to make them viable and innovative. Human ingenuity turns AI’s raw ideas into original solutions. Contrasting successful projects where AI provided suggestions but human creativity brought them to life can be enlightening. Student activities that involve refining AI outputs into unique, impactful solutions highlight the irreplaceable value of human creativity.

Leveraging Generative AI: Personalizing The Journey

Generative AI can also transform education through personalized learning. The World Economic Forum projects such learning will improve learning outcomes. AI-generated content can provide customized exercises, interactive tutorials, and targeted practice with immediate feedback, tailored to students’ unique learning needs. Personalization enables students to concentrate on areas that require more attention, enhancing their engagement and mastery of complex topics.

For example, generative AI can generate practice problems in an accounting course based on a student's understanding of financial ratios, adjusting the difficulty as proficiency grows. It can also offer varied examples and explanations, making the content more accessible and tailored to different learning styles. However, maximizing these benefits requires active engagement, where students question the material, apply concepts, and explore the generated content deeply.

New Forms of Assessment: Measuring Process, Insight, And Adaptability

The shift in pedagogy requires new forms of assessment. Traditional tests that require rote memorization fall short in evaluating AI-era skills. Instead, assessments should focus on learning processes, insight, adaptability, and effective AI use.

Process-oriented assessments should value how students reach conclusions, emphasizing critical analysis, refinement, and adapting AI outputs. Reflective journals can document this journey, making the learning process as important as the result.

Assignments with AI tools should reward creativity, critical thinking, teamwork, and effective AI use. Portfolios showcasing AI-enhanced work can demonstrate student growth, while peer reviews encourage collaboration. Self-assessment fosters metacognition, helping students reflect and adapt. These assessment methods highlight what students know, how they think, how they engage with AI, and how they apply knowledge to real challenges.

Fostering Metacognition And Lifelong Learning: Nurturing Reflective Thinkers

The final shift should be toward fostering metacognition, encouraging students to think about their thinking. While AI can assist in developing metacognitive skills, reflection, self-assessment, and adaptability are uniquely human and essential for lifelong learning.

In leadership courses, students might use AI to draft personal development plans with insights on leadership styles or growth areas. However, students must evaluate these suggestions within the context of their values and experiences. Reflective practices like journaling, aided by AI, help students grow, but the deep insights come from human introspection.

To cultivate lifelong learners, educators should encourage students to use AI tools that support continuous learning, such as online platforms. Introducing resources like online certifications, AI literacy courses, and webinars helps students understand that learning extends beyond formal education.

Access And Ethics: Navigating AI's Role In Modern Classrooms

AI brings great promise to education but also challenges. Equitable access is a major concern as schools with limited funding may struggle to implement AI tools, worsening gaps between well-resourced and underserved institutions. Students without reliable internet or devices are also at risk of falling behind, deepening existing inequities. Ensuring universal access is crucial to bridge these gaps.

Bias is another challenge. AI algorithms often reflect biases from their training data, which can reinforce stereotypes or disadvantage marginalized groups. Privacy is also a key concern as AI increasingly relies on student data. Ethical, secure handling of this data is essential to building trust in AI-driven education.

AI also raises academic integrity concerns. Generative AI tools make it easy for students to take shortcuts, undermining authentic learning and assessments. Educators must design assessments that foster critical thinking and position AI as a supportive tool rather than a shortcut. Addressing these ethical challenges is vital to maximize AI's benefits while minimizing risks.

Adapt Or Fall Behind: Educators In An AI-Driven Era

Educators must evolve by continually learning about AI and new pedagogical approaches. Professional development, AI literacy training, and collaboration are key to staying effective. Institutions can offer various professional growth opportunities, including online courses, certifications, peer mentoring, hands-on workshops, conferences, and industry partnerships. Darling-Hammond et al. highlight that hands-on workshops and peer mentoring are especially effective for direct engagement and skill application.

Participation in learning communities, interdisciplinary projects, and industry collaborations keeps educators current, exposing them to real-world AI applications and fostering a culture of shared best practices. By embracing lifelong learning, educators can transform into dynamic facilitators, capable of preparing students for an AI-enhanced world.

Institutional Commitment: Empowering Faculty Development

Institutions are crucial in helping faculty adapt to the evolving educational landscape. Leadership should focus on fostering innovation, aligning AI with institutional goals, and promoting sustainable, ethical technology use.

A proactive approach to professional development includes structured support and incentives. Financial support could involve grants for AI workshops, funds for new tools, reduced teaching loads, or dedicated learning time. Beyond logistics, fostering a culture that values learning is essential. Recognizing achievements and establishing mentorship programs can motivate faculty.

By genuinely supporting continuous faculty development, institutions ensure educators integrate AI effectively and inspire them to lead in a technology-driven educational world.

The Human-AI Partnership: Education For An Evolving World

A pedagogical paradigm shift in education is inevitable: generative AI must be a powerful partner but never a substitute for human ingenuity, ethical reasoning, or emotional intelligence. Educators should teach students to harness generative AI’s capabilities and enhance, not replace, human skills.

The future demands adaptable students who can learn, unlearn, and relearn as AI evolves. By fostering critical thinking, ethical literacy, collaboration, and creativity, we prepare students to use AI tools effectively and lead in a tech-driven world. The most powerful learning happens at the intersection of human insight and AI capability: a partnership that can transform education and society for the better.

Forbes

A lesson many business owners learn the hard way is that chasing growth too early can compromise the quality of a product or service. It can also overwhelm a young company’s operations, with potentially disastrous results. So how do you scale a successful business that’s inherently difficult to scale?

To answer this question, we turned to three founders whose business models don’t readily lend themselves to fast growth: Sarah LaFleur, founder of womenswear brand M.M.LaFleur; Ariela Safira, founder of mental health care company Zeera; and Christina Tosi, founder of bakery chain Milk Bar. All three of these founder-CEOs have faced unique challenges while trying to expand, from struggling with delegation to managing excess inventory to launching during the early days of Covid. Working through these issues has made them better leaders, they say.

Among the takeaways that came out of their conversation are that hiring early helps, and pivoting can unlock growth. But the founders started with questions of scaling: How founders should think about scalability, and whether they factored that into their own business plans when they were just getting started.

Tosi: I went to culinary school in New York City and worked my way up to fine dining restaurants, but I really missed that feeling of handing someone a plate of cookies or brownies from your home kitchen, which is why I founded Milk Bar. I’ve joked that the worst business plan imaginable is to open a bakery and try to figure out how to scale it. Baked goods are delicate—they’re meant to be eaten fresh and they’re not very resilient.

Safira: Zeera was set to launch as a brick-and-mortar business in April 2020, which obviously did not happen. We pivoted to a digital model and learned that a lot of people wanted group therapy, so we spent the next two and a half years researching and developing that model. We found that digital group therapy can drive clinical outcomes. Plus, it’s more affordable and more scalable. Last year, we expanded commercially into the employer space, which is now our model. The goal in scaling is to get to a place of pattern recognition so you can repeat what’s working. We’re growing, but we’re not there yet. Instead, we’re making the most of this day or this month, and then we’ll talk at the end about what our next steps will be based on how we did.

LaFleur: We have a program called Bento where customers come to our website and fill out a brief survey, and then our stylists put together a lookbook of items we think will work for them. This was what really allowed our business to scale dramatically in 2014. But the way we arrived at Bento was because we were sitting on a lot of inventory and we didn’t know how to move it. We decided to go out to our existing customer base and tell them we would send them a box of dresses, and they could keep whatever they liked and return whatever they didn’t. We came up with this method out of desperation, because otherwise the business was going to go under. That was a big unlock moment, when we tried something different and suddenly it clicked. As a company, we made more in the month we sent out that survey than in any previous month. I’ve had a few moments like that since, but a lot that didn’t work out, too.

Tosi: At Milk Bar, we spend a lot of time thinking about how we can go from making 50 pies a day to 5,000 while making sure every slice is delicious and consistent. How do we source the ingredients? How are we baking it? As a control freak, I would prefer to bake in one kitchen, but we can’t do that. So how do I get the same exact ingredients into multiple kitchens across the country and make sure the product shows up at our customer’s door exactly how we want it to? You have to establish trust with your partners and get them on board so they know they’re part of the Milk Bar universe. That often means that I or one of the other team members is flying across the country to be in the room. Or going to the printer to make sure the Milk Bar pink on the wrapper is just right. Getting all these little textural pieces to line up is vital to scaling a business. Otherwise, it’s not a business, it’s an art project.

LaFleur: That’s so true. And if I think about what has really gotten in the way of scaling, sometimes it is, ironically, my grit. I tend to stay in things too long and think that if I just work a little bit harder or faster, then it will scale. I have been taught a couple of times now that if it’s not working, then it’s probably not going to scale, and I need to take my foot off the gas and go back to the drawing board. Mentally coaching myself to do that has been the hardest thing.

Safira: For us, the pain point in scaling mental health care is that there are only half a million therapists in America, which means we have only enough therapists in this entire country to offer weekly therapy to 7 percent of Americans. But even if we wanted to offer one-on-one therapy to all our customers, we would have to 10x to 15x our therapist population. This far exceeds any realistic venture capital investment, and I don’t think it would be a good use of time. My point of view in starting this company isn’t to re-create what exists in person, put it online, and slap some cute branding on it. First, we took 10 steps back and asked, what are we trying to get the mental health care system to do? How do we get patients to a better place more efficiently? Second, and this is where scaling presents a different hurdle, how do we effectively story-tell this to a world that compares mental health care to one-on-one therapy?

Tosi: Yes! Telling the story is more of a challenge now than before because there’s so much noise. How do you say to people, “Shh, just give me your time and attention and I’ll make your life so much better”? Because, to your point, Ariela, you could make something incredible and it just never reaches people because you can’t get their time and attention.

Safira: A beautiful marketing lesson is “say less.” But you’re always speaking to very different stakeholders, so the ability to remain succinct while delivering a message to people who care about very different things is a real challenge.

LaFleur: When you’re a founder growing a business, every year feels like its own unique startup.

Tosi: I have a question for you both. What’s been your biggest scaling mistake?

Inc

Professor Benedicta Madunagu, a pioneering feminist, revolutionary socialist, human rights activist, and distinguished botanist, passed away on November 26, 2024, in Calabar, Cross River State, Nigeria, at the age of 77.

A lifelong committed revolutionary and scholar, Comrade Bene (as she was fondly called) was a prominent figure in the Nigerian Left, dedicated to social justice, gender empowerment, and progressive political transformation. She was a professor of Botany at the University of Calabar and co-founder of the influential Girls' Power Initiative (GPI), an organization committed to girls' and young women's empowerment.

Born in Afaha-Essang, Akwa Ibom State, Professor Madunagu's academic journey began at the University of Lagos, where she pursued graduate studies in Botany. Together with her husband, Edwin Madunagu, she was a key member of several revolutionary organizations, including the Calabar Group of Socialists and the Anti-Poverty Movement of Nigeria (APMON).

Bene was renowned for her exceptional contributions to academic research, feminist activism, and socialist revolutionary movements. She was particularly celebrated for her work with GPI, where she transformed the lives of countless young women from disadvantaged backgrounds, providing them with material supports, critical knowledge and insights about their place in the world.

A stalwart in the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU), she was widely respected for her principled leadership, intellectual rigor, and unwavering commitment to social change. Her inaugural lecture on Plant-Human Relationships in 2012 was a testament to her scholarly brilliance.

She is survived by her husband, Edwin Madunagu, three children (Unoma, Ikenna and Michael), and numerous comrades, colleagues, students, and friends who were inspired by her lifelong dedication to social justice and human rights.

A celebration of her remarkable life will be announced by the immediate family in due course.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revealed alarming food price increases in October 2024, with brown beans experiencing the most dramatic surge of 254.23% compared to the previous year.

According to the NBS Selected Food Prices Watch report, key food items saw significant price hikes:

- Brown beans: Increased from N790.01 to N2,798.50 per kg

- Eggs: Rose from N1,112.22 to N2,671.60 for 12 medium-sized agricultural eggs

- Sliced bread: Jumped from N760.82 to N1,550.24

- Local rice: Climbed from N819.42 to N1,944.64 per kg

- Boneless beef: Escalated from N2,948.03 to N5,858.58 per kg

Regional variations were notable, with Bauchi recording the highest brown beans price at N3,750.00 per kg, while Yobe had the lowest at N1,749.52. Niger state saw the highest egg prices at N3,450.00 for 12 pieces, and Rivers state had the most expensive sliced bread at N1,867.14.

In July, the federal government attempted to address rising food prices by implementing a 150-day duty-free import window for food commodities like maize, cowpeas, wheat, and brown rice.

Experts continue to recommend more sustainable solutions, including addressing insecurity, managing foreign exchange rates, and reducing transportation costs to stabilize food prices and ensure food security.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has reported that the rehabilitated old Port Harcourt refinery is now operating at 70% of its installed capacity, with plans to increase production to 90% in the near future.

The refinery, which has a capacity of 60,000 barrels per stream day, has resumed operations after years of challenges and underwent significant repair work. NNPC began truck loading of petroleum products on Tuesday, 26 November, and is currently producing a range of daily outputs including:

- 1.4 million litres of blended petrol

- 900,000 litres of kerosene

- 1.5 million litres of diesel

- 2.1 million litres of low-pour fuel oil

- Additional volumes of liquefied petroleum gas

NNPC emphasized that the refinery uses a standard global blending practice, incorporating crack C5 from Indorama Petrochemicals to ensure the gasoline meets required specifications. The company also hinted at substantial progress on the new Port Harcourt refinery, which is expected to begin operations soon.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has raised the monetary policy rate (MPR) from 27.25% to 27.50%, marking a key decision by the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The MPR serves as the benchmark interest rate for the country.

CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, announced that the MPC maintained the asymmetric corridor around the MPR at +500 and -100 basis points. Additionally, the committee retained the cash reserve ratio (CRR) at 50% and the liquidity ratio at 30%.

Cardoso explained that the hike in the MPR is aimed at addressing rising prices and stabilizing inflation. He highlighted the committee’s focus on managing price pressures, which continue to affect the income and welfare of Nigerians.

“The committee noted that inflationary pressures remain persistent, with a month-on-month increase across key indicators,” Cardoso said. “This underscores the need for policy measures to stabilize prices, anchor inflation expectations, and maintain exchange rate stability.”

While food prices remain a significant driver of inflation, the MPC acknowledged the federal government’s efforts to improve security in the northeast, which is expected to boost agricultural productivity. However, rising energy costs, particularly the recent increase in the price of premium motor spirit (PMS), have continued to elevate production and distribution costs across various sectors.

Despite these challenges, Cardoso expressed optimism that the full deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector will eventually stabilize fuel prices and reduce scarcity, positively impacting the broader economy in the medium term.

The MPC also emphasized the importance of collaboration between monetary and fiscal authorities to achieve sustainable growth and price stability.

In addition, Cardoso highlighted improvements in Nigeria’s external sector, including a rise in the current account surplus, increased remittances, and higher capital inflows, all of which have bolstered the country’s external reserves.

“The committee is pleased with the progress being made as key policy measures by both monetary and fiscal authorities begin to deliver positive results,” he added.

Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, brokered by US and France, aims for permanent peace

A ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah took effect at 0200 GMT on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden said both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the United States and France.

The accord clears the way for an end to a conflict across the Israeli-Lebanese border that has killed thousands of people since it was ignited by the Gaza war last year.

Biden spoke at the White House on Tuesday shortly after Israel's security cabinet approved the agreement in a 10-1 vote. He said he had spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and that fighting would end at 4 a.m. local time (0200 GMT).

"This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities," Biden said. "What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed to threaten the security of Israel again.”

Israel will gradually withdraw its forces over 60 days as Lebanon's army takes control of territory near its border with Israel to ensure that Hezbollah does not rebuild its infrastructure there, Biden said.

"Civilians on both sides will soon be able to safely return to their communities," he said.

Hezbollah has not formally commented on the ceasefire but senior official Hassan Fadlallah told Lebanon's Al Jadeed TV that while it supported the extension of the Lebanese state’s authority, the group would emerge from the war stronger.

"Thousands will join the resistance ... Disarming the resistance was an Israeli proposal that fell through," said Fadlallah, who is also a member of Lebanon's parliament.

Iran, which backs Hezbollah, the Palestinian group Hamas as well as the Houthi rebels that have attacked Israel from Yemen, has not publicly commented on the ceasefire.

French President Emmanuel Macron said on social-media platform X the deal was “the culmination of efforts undertaken for many months with the Israeli and Lebanese authorities, in close collaboration with the United States.”

Lebanon's Mikati issued a statement welcoming the deal. Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said the Lebanese army would have at least 5,000 troops deployed in southern Lebanon as Israeli troops withdrew.

Netanyahu said he was ready to implement a ceasefire but would respond forcefully to any violation by Hezbollah.

He said the ceasefire would allow Israel to focus on the threat from Iran, give the army an opportunity to rest and replenish supplies, and isolate Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that triggered war in the region when it attacked Israel from Gaza last year.

'SET IT BACK DECADES'

"In full coordination with the United States, we retain complete military freedom of action. Should Hezbollah violate the agreement or attempt to rearm, we will strike decisively," Netanyahu said.

Hezbollah, which is allied to Hamas, was considerably weaker than it had been at the start of the conflict, he added.

"We have set it back decades, eliminated ... its top leaders, destroyed most of its rockets and missiles, neutralized thousands of fighters, and obliterated years of terror infrastructure near our border," he said.

A senior U.S. official, briefing reporters on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. and France would join a mechanism with the UNIFIL peacekeeping force that would work with Lebanon's army to deter potential violations of the ceasefire. U.S. combat forces would not be deployed, the official said.

Jon Finer, deputy national security adviser in the Biden administration, told CNN that Washington would be watching for any violations of the deal.

"Implementation of this agreement will be key and we will be very vigilant to any attempts to disrupt what the two parties have committed to as part of this process today," he said.

Biden, who leaves office in January, said his administration would continue to push for an elusive ceasefire and hostage-release deal in Gaza, as well as for a deal to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

In the hours leading up to the ceasefire, hostilities raged as Israel ramped up its campaign of airstrikes in Beirut and other parts of Lebanon, with health authorities reporting at least 18 killed.

The Israeli military said it struck "components of Hezbollah’s financial management and systems" including a money-exchange office.

Hezbollah also kept up rocket fire into Israel.

Israel's air force intercepted three launches from Lebanese territory, the military said, in an extensive missile barrage on Tuesday night that led to warning alarms in about 115 settlements.

Alia Ibrahim, a mother of twin girls from the southern village of Qaaqaiyat al-Snawbar, who had fled nearly three months ago to Beirut, said she hoped Israeli officials, who have expressed contradictory views on a ceasefire, would be faithful to the deal.

“Our village – they destroyed half of it. In these few seconds before they announced the ceasefire, they destroyed half our village,” she said. “God willing, we can go back to our homes and our land."

A poll conducted by Israel's Channel 12 TV found that 37% of Israelis were in favour of the ceasefire, compared with 32% against.

Opponents to the deal in Israel include opposition leaders and heads of towns near Israel's border with Lebanon, who want a depopulated buffer zone on Lebanon's side of the frontier.

Both the Lebanese government and Hezbollah have insisted that a return of displaced civilians to southern Lebanon is a key tenet of the truce.

Israeli Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a right-wing member of Netanyahu's government, said on X the agreement did not ensure the return of Israelis to their homes in the country's north and that the Lebanese army did not have the ability to overcome Hezbollah.

"In order to leave Lebanon, we must have our own security belt," Ben-Gvir said.

Reuters

WESTERN PERSPECTIVE

Russia accelerates advance in Ukraine's east

Russian forces are advancing in Ukraine at the fastest rate since the early days of the 2022 invasion, taking an area half the size of London over the past month, analysts and war bloggers said on Tuesday.

Russian troops swept through swathes of Ukraine in early 2022 before being pushed back to its east and south. The 1,000 km (620-mile) front line has been largely static for two years, until the latest, smaller-scale advances that began in July.

The war is entering what some Russian and Western officials say could be its most dangerous phase, with Russia reported to be using North Korean troops in Ukraine and Kyiv now using Western-supplied missiles to strike back inside Russia.

Moscow, which like North Korea has not confirmed or denied the presence of the troops, used a hypersonic intermediate-range missile on Ukraine last week and Ukraine reported the biggest Russian drone attack on its territory so far on Tuesday.

"Russia has set new weekly and monthly records for the size of the occupied territory in Ukraine," independent Russian news group Agentstvo said in a report.

The Russian army captured almost 235 sq km (91 sq miles) in Ukraine over the past week, a weekly record for 2024, it said.

Russian forces had taken 600 sq km (232 sq miles) in November, it added, citing data from DeepState, which studies combat footage and provides front line maps.

On Tuesday, Russia's Defence Ministry reported the capture by its forces of another village, Kopanky, in Kharkiv region, another focus of Russian military activity north of the main theatre of fighting in Donetsk region.

Ukraine's third separate assault brigade, in a post on Telegram on Monday, said it had cleared the village of Russian soldiers.

And Ukrainian media quoted Nazar Voloshyn, a spokesperson for the Khortytsya group of troops, as saying Kyiv's forces had repelled a Russian advance on the logistical centre of Kupiansk, also in Kharkiv region. It was the second time this month that the Ukrainian military reported rebuffing an attack on Kupiansk.

Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst with Finland's Black Bird Group, said Russian forces had taken control of an estimated 667 sq km (257 sq miles) this month, citing data he said could include some October gains noted with a delay.

President Vladimir Putin, who replaced his defence minister in May, has repeatedly said that Russian forces are advancing much more effectively - and that Russia will achieve all its aims in Ukraine, although he has not spelled them out in detail.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said he believed Putin's main objectives are to occupy the Donbas, spanning the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, and oust Ukrainian troops from Russia's Kursk region, parts of which they have controlled since August,

A source on Ukraine's General Staff, said on Sunday that Ukraine now held around 800 of the 1,376 square kilometres of Kursk that they held initially and would hold it "for as long as is militarily appropriate".

Russia controls 18% of Ukraine including all of Crimea, just over 80% of Donbas and more than 70% of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in the south, as well just under 3% of the eastern Kharkiv region, according to open source maps.

RUSSIAN ADVANCE

The thrust of the advance has been in Donetsk region, with Russian forces pushing towards the town of Pokrovsk and into the town of Kurakhove. Russia has increasingly encircled territory and then pummelled Ukrainian forces with artillery and glide bombs, according to Russian analysts.

Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, said on Tuesday that Russia held the complete strategic initiative on the battlefield.

Neither side publishes accurate data on their own losses though Western intelligence estimates casualties to number hundreds of thousands killed or injured, while swathes of eastern and southern Ukraine have turned into wastelands.

Ukrainian officials say it is hard to expand mobilisation without knowing when Western military assistance is going to arrive in practice and how reliable it will be.

The General Staff of Ukraine's military said in an update on Tuesday afternoon that its forces had repelled 23 Russian attempts to advance along the Kurakhove part of the front line that evening. It said 25 attacks were repelled near Pokrovsk,

Russian war bloggers say that if Russia can pierce the Ukrainian defences around Kurakhove, they will be able to push westwards towards the city of Zaporizhzhia while securing their rear to allow a swing towards Pokrovsk.

Ukrainian military officials acknowledge the situation in the east is the worst now that it has been all year. Zelenskiy has blamed several factors including delays of up to a year in equipping brigades, partly because of the long time the U.S Congress took to sign off on a major Ukraine assistance package.

RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE

Moscow preparing response to Kiev’s ATACMS attacks – MOD

Russia is preparing a response to Ukrainian ATACMS attacks on Kursk Region, the Russian Defense Ministry announced on Tuesday. Last week, US President Joe Biden authorized Kiev to use US-supplied long-range missiles against targets deep inside Russia’s internationally recognized borders.

In an official statement on Telegram, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that over the past three days, Ukraine’s forces had conducted two long-range strikes on Kursk Region using Western weaponry.

On November 23, Kiev reportedly fired five long-range ATACMS missiles at village of Lotaryovka, some 37km northwest of the city of Kursk, targeting the position of an S-400 anti-aircraft missile division. The strike resulted in three casualties and damaged the radar, the ministry said.

Additionally, on November 25, Kiev launched another eight ATACMS at the Kursk-Vostochny airfield, located near the village of Khalino. Seven of the missiles were shot down using the S-400 missile defense system and the Pantsir air defense missile and gun system. However, one of the missiles managed to reach its target. As a result, two servicemen were injured while facilities were “slightly damaged,” according to the report.

The ministry noted that inspections of the target areas have “reliably confirmed” that Kiev’s forces had used US-supplied ATACMS missiles to carry out the attacks. The ministry also published several photos of what are purported to be the remains of the US-made rockets.

“The Russian Ministry of Defense is monitoring the situation, and response actions are being prepared,” the report concluded.

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the deployment of the country's brand-new hypersonic Oreshnik ballistic missile as a response to Biden's authorization for Kiev to use ATACMS. The new Russian weapon, which is capable of carrying nuclear warheads, was used against a Ukrainian military industrial facility in the city of Dnepropetrovsk.

Putin called the strike a “combat test” of the state-of-the-art weapon and warned that such “tests” would continue, depending on the circumstances and that Russia would respond “decisively and in a mirror-like manner” to the further escalation of aggressive actions by Kiev and it foreign backers.

Reuters/RT