Monday, 11 November 2024 04:22

While 2024 Budget projects deficit of 3.8% of GDP, FG’s spendings already doubled deficit to 7.6% by August - Report

Rate this item
(0 votes)

Nigeria’s fiscal deficit continues to swell, with recent figures showing a budget deficit of 7.6% of GDP as of August 2024, outpacing the approved 3.8% target for the year.

This was revealed in the personal statements of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members, who voiced concern over the growing gap between revenue generation and spending.

At the start of 2024, the National Assembly approved a budget of N28.7 trillion with a revenue target of N19.5 trillion, leaving a budget deficit forecast of N9.1 trillion equivalent to about 3.8% of GDP.

However, the deficit has surged well beyond projections, with a supplementary budget of N6.2 trillion proposed later in the year, compounding the fiscal strain.

What they are saying 

According to MPC member Aloysius Uche Ordu, Nigeria’s revenue collection significantly underperformed, reaching only 37.9% of the year’s target in the first half of 2024.

  • This shortfall was attributed largely to deficits in the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) receipts, which hindered the federal government’s ability to meet its financial obligations.
  • Despite a reported 33.31% improvement in retained revenue from January to June compared to the same period in 2023, overall revenue still fell 62.1% short of its target, a gap that highlights the country’s fiscal challenges.

MPC member Lamido Yuguda also highlighted the consequences of Nigeria’s low revenue base, stressing that it underpins the weak fiscal performance in the first half of the year.

  • Provisional numbers indicate that the fiscal deficit already was 91.94% of the full-year target as of June, raising questions about how the federal government would finance the remaining budgeted expenditure without further widening the deficit.

Aloysius Uche Ordu emphasized that Nigeria’s spending priorities leaned heavily toward recurrent expenditures, driven primarily by debt servicing costs.

  • Meanwhile, capital expenditure, a critical area for economic growth and development, continued to lag.
  • The excess spending on recurrent needs has been compounded by a reluctance to reprioritize resources in favour of capital projects that could drive longer-term economic improvements.

CBN MPC member Muhammad Sani Abdullahi reiterated the importance of a proactive monetary policy in countering the fiscal deficit’s potential repercussions, especially as discussions on implementing a new minimum wage gain traction.

  • He noted that while the deficit currently hovers at 7.6% of GDP, efforts to bolster revenue generation and trim government spending could gradually stabilize Nigeria’s fiscal outlook.
  • A narrowing deficit, Abdullahi stressed, would support macroeconomic stability and relieve some of the pressures currently weighing on the economy.

While members of the MPC acknowledged that the fiscal authority has shown restraint by not resorting to the Central Bank’s Ways & Means financing, concerns remain over how long the government can sustain this stance amid revenue shortfalls and mounting obligations.

The committee noted that heavy reliance on FAAC distributions affects liquidity levels within the banking sector, subsequently impacting the naira exchange rate.

The external sector faring better 

In contrast to Nigeria’s worsening fiscal situation, developments in the external sector offered a glimmer of optimism.

  • A decline in import bills, attributed to the CBN’s tight monetary stance, resulted in a balance of payments surplus of $2.47 billion for the period.
  • External reserves climbed to $37.44 billion as of September 2024, offering over seven months of import cover.
  • By November, reserves had grown further to $40 billion, a milestone that signals resilience in Nigeria’s foreign exchange holdings amid domestic fiscal strain.
  • The naira also recorded a slight appreciation, bolstered by improved reserves and reduced import demand.

Implications for policy and market stability 

The fiscal challenges Nigeria faces highlight a structural issue in the country’s financial framework, primarily driven by revenue volatility and expenditure imbalances.

  • While external reserves and the balance of payments position provide a buffer, the domestic fiscal environment remains precarious.
  • The MPC’s ongoing commitment to maintaining a tight monetary policy has helped curb import demand and limit external shocks to some extent.
  • However, sustained fiscal deficits could undermine these efforts if the federal government fails to enhance revenue generation and exercise spending discipline.

 

Nairametrics

May 08, 2025

‘Don’t worry’ about your salary early in your career, says Warren Buffett: Focus on this…

I worked at a financial magazine for much of my 20s, and for the most…
May 08, 2025

Pat Utomi forms ‘shadow government’. These are the members and what they’ll do

Economist and political activist, Pat Utomi has assumed a formal opposition role with the formation…
May 09, 2025

Ultra-processed foods are driving premature deaths. Here are the 4 common culprits

Ultra-processed foods are getting a lot of attention. Research links them to cancer, heart disease,…
May 03, 2025

Man accidentally buys his own car after it was stolen a few weeks earlier

An English man unknowingly bought back his own Honda Civic just weeks after it was…
May 07, 2025

Gunmen invade Plateau communities, kill six, injure several

No fewer than six persons were killed in renewed attacks in Marit and Gashish communities…
May 09, 2025

Here’s the latest as Israel-Hamas war enters Day 581

Israel says it intercepted missile fired from Yemen; Houthis claim responsibility Israel's military said on…
May 07, 2025

The first driverless ‘trailers’ have started running regular longhaul routes

Driverless trucks are officially running their first regular long-haul routes, making roundtrips between Dallas and…
January 08, 2025

NFF appoints new Super Eagles head coach

The Nigeria Football Federation (NFF) has appointed Éric Sékou Chelle as the new Head Coach…

NEWSSCROLL TEAM: 'Sina Kawonise: Publisher/Editor-in-Chief; Afolabi Ajibola: IT Manager;
Contact Us: [email protected] Tel/WhatsApp: +234 811 395 4049

Copyright © 2015 - 2025 NewsScroll. All rights reserved.